DAILY PACE CARD
Selections — Results
Every pick from the day's selections sheet, settled against the official results.
Thursday, October 22, 2026 · 32 picks · All times ET
Page built October 23, 2026 · 2:17 AM ET — if this stamp looks old, refresh the page.
Races settled: 25 of 25 — two $2 win picks per race, one for each of the two most likely pace scenarios.
18 race(s) filed one pick only — the second scenario fell below the likelihood floor (v2.2); the single leg counts with the most likely scenario picks.
Most likely scenario picks: 25 settled · 5 winners · $50 win bets → $23.22 · ROI -53.6%
Second scenario picks: 5 settled · 2 winners · $10 win bets → $10.76 · ROI +7.6%
Winner was one of the pair: 7 of 25 races.
In the money: 19 of 30 pick legs (63%) finished 1st, 2nd or 3rd.
The 7 winners paid an average of $4.85 on a $2 win ticket.
Across the board: $2 win-place-show on every pick — $176 → $137.66 · ROI -21.8%. (2 pool stake(s) refunded — the chart printed no price for that pool.)
Scratches: 2 pick(s) were scratched in the official chart. Those legs settle on the filed backup shown under each pick — the pick that would have been filed had the scratches been known — and the scorecard above counts them.
As filed (before scratches): 28 settled · 6 winners · $56 win bets → $27.98 · ROI -50.0%
⭐ BEST BET OF THE DAY
1:10 PM ET · Belmont Park · Race 1
1 1/16 Mile · Dirt · Allowance 105000n1x
IF THE PACE STAYS HONEST (55%)
#2 Katie King ★ 2/1OUT
Trainer: M. Anthony Ferraro · Jockey: Kendrick Carmouche
Won by #5 Fedupwiththefed — paid $2.96
Katie King leads the blended late graph by a clear margin — 92, 30 points clear — with the field's best raw late figure (#1) for M. Anthony Ferraro/Kendrick Carmouche; the favorite has the early speed but no finish (raw late 0) to match her.
The price: 2/1 second choice behind the 8/5 favorite Fedupwiththefed — priced just behind him on his early speed, but the sheet's late graph is a rout in her favor and the favorite was passed under the price floor: below 2/1 he needed the late-graph lead and does not hold it.
IF THE PACE IS CONTROLLED (45%)
#5 Fedupwiththefed 8/5🏆 WIN
Trainer: David G Donk · Jockey: Flavien Prat
Paid $2.96 to win ($2)
Fedupwiththefed leads the early graph by daylight (100, next best 68) for David G Donk/Flavien Prat and is second on the blended late graph (62); if the one signed-on speed controls this five-horse route, he is the horse doing the controlling.
The price: 8/5 favorite — priced shortest on the early lead; his raw late figure is why he is not the honest scenario's pick, but a controlled pace is the one race shape that plays to him.
NEXT BEST
6:43 PM ET · Penn National · Race 3
6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance 10000s
IF THE PACE STAYS HONEST (60%)
#4 Sergeant Capps 3/1SCRATCHED — REFUND
Trainer: Panagiotis A Synnefias · Jockey: Julio A Hernandez
Sergeant Capps leads both graphs — early 100 and the blended late lead (88) — a sanctioned profile edge, for Panagiotis A Synnefi/Julio A Hernandez, pressing from the front of a three-speed sprint and still holding the best finish on the sheet.
The price: 3/1 favorite — priced shortest on the double graph lead. Caution on the price: he drops in class off a good last race, the profile the crowd overpays for, so 3/1 is fair rather than generous.
IF THE PACE COLLAPSES (40%)
#10 Nano Man ★ 10/1SCRATCHED — REFUND
Trainer: Cesar Nambo · Jockey: Emanuel Rosario
Nano Man owns the field's best raw late figure (#1) for Cesar Nambo/Emanuel Rosario; the collapse has genuine duel support — three E/E-P horses with early figures of 65+ (Heard On Thestreet 92, Magicnthemoonlight 81, Margin of Air 79) — and among the horses that duel leaves standing, his raw finish is the one that matters.
The price: 10/1 — priced as a minor closer in a speed-heavy sprint, but the duel in front of him is real and his raw late figure is the field's best.
FEATURED PLAY
10:46 PM ET · Remington Park · Race 8
6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance 40000n2x
IF THE PACE STAYS HONEST (55%)
#2 Berry Mischievous ★ 9/2OUT
Trainer: J. R. Caldwell · Jockey: Rene Diaz
Won by #4 Brilliant Plan — paid $3.80
Berry Mischievous is the marginal blended late leader (72) with the field's best raw late figure (#1) — the raw-figure second edge in a no-qualifier field (late margin 2) — for J. R. Caldwell/Rene Diaz, sitting behind two co-fastest E/P speeds who must go together.
The price: 9/2 — priced fourth in a six-horse allowance because his early figure (38) is the field's slowest, but his raw finish is the field's best by a wide margin and the pace in front of him is honest at worst.
IF THE PACE IS CONTROLLED (45%)
#6 It's All Right 2/12ND · PLACE
Trainer: Austin Gustafson · Jockey: Iram V Diego
Placed — paid $6.40 to place ($2). Won by #4 Brilliant Plan
It's All Right co-leads the early graph (90) and is second on the blended late graph (70) — top-2 on both graphs — for Austin Gustafson/Iram V Diego; between the two controlling speeds he holds the better finish, which is what a controlled sprint asks for.
The price: 2/1 favorite — priced shortest on the early lead; he was not the honest scenario's pick because Berry Mischievous's raw late figure dwarfs his (20), and the 159-day layoff is noted.
📋 The Cheat Sheet — Settled
| POST | TRACK | RACE | SELECTION | ML | RESULT | CHART |
|---|
| 1:10 PM | Belmont Park | R1 | If the pace stays honest (55%): #2 Katie King ★ If the pace is controlled (45%): #5 Fedupwiththefed | 2/1
8/5 | OUT
WIN $2.96 | Official chart |
| 1:42 PM | Belmont Park | R2 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #2 Abrigado | 4/5 | PLACE | Official chart |
| 2:37 PM | Horseshoe Indianapolis | R2 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #1 Fervent Prayer | 3/1 | OUT | Official chart |
| 2:49 PM | Belmont Park HOT | R4 | If the pace is controlled (70%): #7 Emerald Ember | 7/5 | WIN $3.02 | Official chart |
| 3:15 PM | Woodbine | R1 | If the pace is controlled (70%): #6 Charmingly Evasive | 8/5 | PLACE | Official chart |
| 3:57 PM | Presque Isle Downs | R2 | If the pace is controlled (70%): #6 Take Me To Church | 5/2 | PLACE | Official chart |
| 4:12 PM | Keeneland | R7 | If the pace stays honest (55%): #9 Passionfruit ★ If the pace is controlled (45%): #1 American Pearl ★ | 6/1
9/2 | OUT
OUT | Official chart |
| 4:24 PM | Presque Isle Downs | R3 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #1 Axcel ★ | 7/2 | PLACE | Official chart |
| 4:44 PM | Keeneland | R8 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #2 Clock Tower | 5/2 | WIN $7.80 | Official chart |
| 4:51 PM | Presque Isle Downs | R4 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #4 Drunkle ★ | 4/1 | OUT | Official chart |
| 4:52 PM | Woodbine | R4 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #11 Design Diva ★ | 4/1 | SHOW | Official chart |
| 5:24 PM | Woodbine | R5 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #7 Naughty Destiny | 3/1 | OUT | Official chart |
| 5:45 PM | Presque Isle Downs | R6 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #9 She's Lit ★ | 3/1 | OUT | Official chart |
| 5:55 PM | Horseshoe Indianapolis | R8 | If the pace stays honest (55%): #9 Sir Bahjy If the pace is controlled (45%): #3 Palm Tree ★ | 3/1
5/1 | PLACE
PEND | Official chart |
| 6:12 PM | Presque Isle Downs | R7 | If the pace is controlled (70%): #1 Nuts and Bolts | 9/5 | WIN $2.60 | Official chart |
| 7:30 PM | Remington Park | R1 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #3 Order of Merit ★ | 3/1 | SHOW | Official chart |
| 7:32 PM | Delta Downs | R5 | If the pace is controlled (70%): #3 Pondicherry | 2/1 | PLACE | Official chart |
| 6:39 PM | Presque Isle Downs | R8 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #4 Fadethenoise ★ | 7/2 | OUT | Official chart |
| 6:43 PM | Penn National | R3 | If the pace stays honest (60%): #4 Sergeant Capps If the pace collapses (40%): #10 Nano Man ★ | 3/1
10/1 | WIN $6.00
PEND | Official chart |
| 8:00 PM | Delta Downs | R6 | If the pace is controlled (55%): #4 Fade to Gold If the pace stays honest (45%): #3 Della Do ★ | 5/2
7/2 | OUT
PLACE | Official chart |
| 7:06 PM | Presque Isle Downs | R9 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #6 Channel Me In | 3/1 | OUT | Official chart |
| 8:28 PM | Delta Downs | R7 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #5 Achromedoutcat | 9/5 | WIN $3.80 | Official chart |
| 8:10 PM | Penn National HOT | R6 | If the pace is controlled (70%): #4 The Judge and Jury | 5/2 | PLACE | Official chart |
| 10:46 PM | Remington Park | R8 | If the pace stays honest (55%): #2 Berry Mischievous ★ If the pace is controlled (45%): #6 It's All Right | 9/2
2/1 | OUT
PLACE | Official chart |
| Horseshoe Indianapolis | R7 | If the pace stays honest (55%): #4 Which Side R U On If the pace is controlled (45%): #9 Mackadoo ★ | 5/2
3/1 | PLACE
WIN $7.80 | Official chart |