THOROUGHWIZ

The Tip Sheet — Results

Every pick from the day's selections sheet, settled against the official results.

Sunday, November 1, 2026 · 67 picks · All times ET

Page built November 1, 2026 · 8:15 PM ET — if this stamp looks old, refresh the page.

PICK LEGS SETTLED

WINNERS

9-16-8

WIN-PLACE-SHOW

$100

$2 WIN BETS

$39.58

RETURNED

-60.4%

ROI

Races settled: 46 of 51 — the two scenario picks still file, but the math settles ONE $2 win pick per race: the official pick. From the 2026-11-01 card the official pick is chosen by the margin rule (protocol v3.8 §23): of the two scenario horses, the one that stands clearest of the field on its own pace graph — slot 1 unless that margin puts the official pick on the second scenario's horse (earlier days filed no margin choice and settle on slot 1). If the official pick is scratched, the other scenario's pick is the first backup, then the official pick's filed alternate, then the other scenario's alternate (single-pick accounting, Douglas 2026-11-01; margin rule v3.8).

35 race(s) filed one pick only — the second scenario fell below the likelihood floor (v2.2); that pick is the official pick and its filed alternate is its backup.

Official picks: 46 settled · 9 winners · $92 win bets → $39.58 · ROI -57.0%

Backup chain: 6 official pick(s) were scratched and settled on the first backup that ran; 0 race(s) had every horse in the chain scratched and count no leg.

Winner was the official pick: 9 of 46 races.

Counter-move legs (v2.9 §16): 4 settled · 0 winners · $8 win bets → $0.00 · ROI -100.0% — counted in the scorecard above.

In the money: 33 of 50 pick legs (66%) finished 1st, 2nd or 3rd.

The 9 winners paid an average of $4.40 on a $2 win ticket.

Across the board: $2 win-place-show on every pick — $274 → $195.00 · ROI -28.8%. (1 pool stake(s) refunded — the chart printed no price for that pool.)

Scratches: 6 official pick(s) were scratched in the official chart. Those legs settle on the first backup in the chain that actually ran — the other scenario's pick first, then the official pick's filed alternate, then the other scenario's alternate — and the scorecard above counts them.

As filed (before scratches): 44 settled · 9 winners · $88 win bets → $39.58 · ROI -55.0%

★ BEST BET OF THE DAY

6:33 PM ET · Santa Anita · Race 8

6½ Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance 67000n1x *

IF THE PACE STAYS HONEST (60%)

#13 Got'm Cot'm ★ 5/1SCRATCHED — REFUND

Trainer: Val Brinkerhoff · Jockey: Tiago J Pereira

Got'm Cot'm carries a raw late figure at 90 or higher with the market agreeing at the top for Val Brinkerhoff/Tiago J Pereira at 124 lb; under an honest pace his finish is the strongest the scenario leaves standing

The price: 5/1 a price horse behind the 3/1 favorite Frank Bullitt - the favorite was passed: the favorite carries no named edge on the sheet

IF THE PACE IS CONTROLLED (40%)

#4 Frank Bullitt 3/1OUT

Trainer: Debbie Winick · Jockey: Tyler Baze

Won by #10 Third Beer — paid $8.40

Frank Bullitt carries the strongest late figure the scenario leaves standing (blended late 76, raw late 36) for Debbie Winick/Tyler Baze at 126 lb; under a controlled pace he is in the forward group throughout

The price: 3/1 favorite, clear of the next choice at 4/1 - priced shortest on the sheet evidence in the why; the line and the sheet agree here

Official chart

NEXT BEST

3:51 PM ET · Belmont Park · Race 10

7 Furlongs · Turf · CasaCreedB175K

IF THE PACE STAYS HONEST (60%)

#12 Intellect 3/1OUT

Trainer: Chad C Brown · Jockey: Manuel Franco

Won by #4 Capitol Hill — paid $16.88

Intellect carries leads the blended late graph (95) with a clear-margin late lead of 28 for Chad C Brown/Manuel Franco at 132 lb; under an honest pace his finish is the strongest the scenario leaves standing; also the clear-margin late-graph lead itself

The price: 3/1 favorite, clear of the next choice at 5/1 - priced shortest on the sheet evidence in the why; the line and the sheet agree here

IF THE PACE IS CONTROLLED (40%)

#6 Fond Farewell ★ 5/12ND · PLACE

Trainer: William Walden · Jockey: Flavien Prat

Placed — paid $3.62 to place ($2). Won by #4 Capitol Hill

Fond Farewell carries the strongest late figure the scenario leaves standing (blended late 67, raw late 67) for William Walden/Flavien Prat at 131 lb; under a controlled pace he is in the forward group throughout

The price: 5/1 a price horse behind the 3/1 favorite Intellect - priced off the favorite despite the sheet evidence in the why; that gap is the value case

Official chart

FEATURED PLAY

2:24 PM ET · Belmont Park · Race 7

1 Mile · Turf · Allowance 105000n1x

IF THE PACE STAYS HONEST (60%)

#13 Accent 5/22ND · PLACE

Trainer: Chad C Brown · Jockey: Manuel Franco

Placed — paid $3.36 to place ($2). Won by #7 War Madam

Accent carries leads the blended late graph (94) with a clear-margin late lead of 16 for Chad C Brown/Manuel Franco at 126 lb; under an honest pace his finish is the strongest the scenario leaves standing; also the clear-margin late-graph lead itself

The price: 5/2 favorite, clear of the next choice at 3/1 - priced shortest on the sheet evidence in the why; the line and the sheet agree here

IF THE PACE IS CONTROLLED (40%)

#14 Ori ★ 3/1SCRATCHED — REFUND

Trainer: Mark E Casse · Jockey: Javier Castellano

Ori carries the strongest late figure the scenario leaves standing (blended late 69, raw late 38) for Mark E Casse/Javier Castellano at 126 lb; under a controlled pace he is in the forward group throughout

The price: 3/1 second choice behind the 5/2 favorite Accent - priced off the favorite despite the sheet evidence in the why; that gap is the value case

Official chart

The Cheat Sheet — Settled

POST	TRACK	RACE	SELECTION	ML	RESULT	CHART
11:30 AM	Belmont Park	R1	If the pace stays honest (60%): #5 Election Hero If the pace is controlled (40%): #3 Horizontal Rain ★ Official chart	9/5 3/1	WIN OUT	Official chart
11:59 AM	Belmont Park	R2	If the pace stays honest (60%): #1 Commuted ★ If the pace is controlled (40%): #3 Buccherino ★ Official chart	2/1 5/2	PLACE SHOW	Official chart
3:00 PM	Santa Anita	R1	If the pace stays honest (70%): #3 Platinum Groove ★ Official chart	2/1	PLACE	Official chart
12:05 PM	Laurel Park	R1	If the pace stays honest (70%): #1 Cara's Dreamweaver Official chart	3/2	WIN $4.00	Official chart
12:20 PM	Gulfstream Park HOT	R1	If the pace is controlled (70%): #6 Pan Pan Official chart	6/5	OUT	Official chart
3:30 PM	Santa Anita HOT	R2	If the pace is controlled (70%): #4 Moonlit Sonata Official chart	3/2	PLACE	Official chart
12:34 PM	Laurel Park	R2	If the pace stays honest (70%): #3 Iamdependingonyou ★ Counter-move (§16): #5 My Dear Antonia Official chart	7/2 5/2	OUT PLACE	Official chart
12:49 PM	Gulfstream Park	R2	If the pace is controlled (70%): #7 Authentic Angel Official chart	7/5	SHOW	Official chart
12:57 PM	Belmont Park HOT	R4	If the pace is controlled (55%): #8 Captain George ★ If the pace stays honest (45%): #1 House of War Official chart	6/1 6/5	SHOW WIN $3.04	Official chart
4:01 PM	Santa Anita	R3	If the pace is controlled (70%): #3 Awsome Amy Official chart	9/5	SHOW	Official chart
1:03 PM	Laurel Park	R3	If the pace stays honest (70%): #10 Let's Be Frank Official chart	3/2	WIN $3.80	Official chart
1:18 PM	Gulfstream Park	R3	If the pace stays honest (70%): #9 Sass Sass Official chart	9/5	WIN $4.60	Official chart
1:26 PM	Belmont Park	R5	If the pace stays honest (70%): #5 Gun Broker Official chart	2/1	PLACE	Official chart
1:33 PM	Laurel Park	R4	If the pace is controlled (70%): #1 Majorca Official chart	5/2	WIN $5.20	Official chart
1:58 PM	Churchill Downs	R3	If the pace stays honest (70%): #8 Love a Warrior Official chart	4/5	WIN $2.70	Official chart
2:03 PM	Laurel Park	R5	If the pace stays honest (70%): #11 Yo Adrian Official chart	5/2	PLACE	Official chart
2:12 PM	Woodbine	R3	If the pace is controlled (55%): #3 Mrs D If the pace stays honest (45%): #2 Homeawayfromhome ★ Official chart	9/5 3/1	PLACE OUT	Official chart
2:24 PM	Belmont Park	R7	If the pace stays honest (60%): #13 Accent If the pace is controlled (40%): #14 Ori ★ Official chart	5/2 3/1	PLACE PLACE	Official chart
2:27 PM	Churchill Downs	R4	If the pace is controlled (70%): #5 Windsock Counter-move (§16): #2 Good Hand Official chart	7/2 4/1	WIN $5.44 PLACE	Official chart
5:33 PM	Santa Anita	R6	If the pace stays honest (70%): #3 Bessie Coleman Official chart	3/2	SHOW	Official chart
2:34 PM	Laurel Park	R6	If the pace stays honest (55%): #8 Tasty Time If the pace is controlled (45%): #2 Share Success ★ Official chart	6/5 5/2	OUT SHOW	Official chart
2:42 PM	Woodbine	R4	If the pace is controlled (55%): #1 Alpha Gamma Girl If the pace stays honest (45%): #5 Aterya ★ Official chart	2/1 7/2	OUT WIN	Official chart
2:45 PM	Gulfstream Park	R6	If the pace stays honest (70%): #6 Tshiebwe Official chart	8/5	PLACE	Official chart
2:53 PM	Belmont Park	R8	If the pace stays honest (70%): #4 Donor Advised Official chart	6/5	PLACE	Official chart
2:57 PM	Churchill Downs	R5	If the pace stays honest (55%): #7 Greers Ferry ★ If the pace is controlled (45%): #6 Culprit Official chart	3/1 2/1	PLACE OUT	Official chart
6:03 PM	Santa Anita	R7	If the pace is controlled (70%): #3 Vino Vino Vino ★ Official chart	5/1	PLACE	Official chart
3:05 PM	Laurel Park	R7	If the pace stays honest (70%): #4 Biscuitwiththeboss Official chart	9/5	OUT	Official chart
3:14 PM	Gulfstream Park	R7	If the pace is controlled (70%): #1 Souper Handsome Official chart	7/2	PLACE	Official chart
3:22 PM	Belmont Park	R9	If the pace stays honest (70%): #5 Crazy Mason ★ Official chart	7/2	SHOW	Official chart
3:26 PM	Churchill Downs	R6	If the pace stays honest (60%): #11 The Look If the pace is controlled (40%): #13 Marble Arch ★ Official chart	9/5 6/1	OUT OUT	Official chart
6:33 PM	Santa Anita	R8	If the pace stays honest (60%): #13 Got'm Cot'm ★ If the pace is controlled (40%): #4 Frank Bullitt Official chart	5/1 3/1	OUT OUT	Official chart
3:36 PM	Laurel Park	R8	If the pace stays honest (70%): #5 Sometime Official chart	9/5	OUT	Official chart
3:43 PM	Gulfstream Park	R8	If the pace stays honest (55%): #2 Warm Up the Bus If the pace is controlled (45%): #1 Starship Daytona ★ Official chart	5/2 3/1	WIN OUT	Official chart
3:51 PM	Belmont Park	R10	If the pace stays honest (60%): #12 Intellect If the pace is controlled (40%): #6 Fond Farewell ★ Official chart	3/1 5/1	OUT PLACE	Official chart
3:55 PM	Churchill Downs	R7	If the pace stays honest (70%): #6 Gardiner Official chart	6/5	OUT	Official chart
7:03 PM	Santa Anita	R9	If the pace stays honest (70%): #3 Maker and Sons ★ Official chart	7/2	OUT	Official chart
4:07 PM	Laurel Park	R9	If the pace stays honest (70%): #6 Regalo Official chart	1/1	WIN $3.60	Official chart
4:12 PM	Gulfstream Park	R9	If the pace stays honest (70%): #4 Sosua Summer ★ Official chart	4/1	SHOW	Official chart
4:12 PM	Woodbine HOT	R7	If the pace is controlled (70%): #6 Kekoa Official chart	5/2	OUT	Official chart
4:20 PM	Belmont Park	R11	If the pace stays honest (70%): #2 Noble Dynasty Counter-move (§16): #7 Urgency Official chart	7/2 9/2	PLACE OUT	Official chart
4:25 PM	Churchill Downs	R8	If the pace stays honest (70%): #7 Kaykay Official chart	2/1	OUT	Official chart
7:33 PM	Santa Anita	R10	If the pace stays honest (60%): #3 Seamless Factor If the pace is controlled (40%): #7 Rosa's Miracle ★	7/5 3/1	PEND PEND
4:42 PM	Woodbine	R8	If the pace stays honest (70%): #2 Speaker's Speech ★ Official chart	3/1	WIN $7.20	Official chart
4:55 PM	Churchill Downs	R9	If the pace stays honest (55%): #3 Hazy Horizon If the pace is controlled (45%): #6 Foolin ★ Official chart	5/2 9/2	PLACE OUT	Official chart
5:12 PM	Gulfstream Park	R11	If the pace stays honest (70%): #13 Always True Official chart	3/1	OUT	Official chart
7:00 PM	Mountaineer	R1	If the pace stays honest (70%): #3 Beautriz Counter-move (§16): #2 Rizz Official chart	2/1 3/1	OUT OUT	Official chart
7:25 PM	Mountaineer	R2	If the pace is controlled (70%): #3 Have a Happy Official chart	2/1	SHOW	Official chart
7:50 PM	Mountaineer	R3	If the pace is controlled (55%): #6 Chiva Loca If the pace stays honest (45%): #5 It's Yesenia ★	2/1 7/2	PEND PEND
8:15 PM	Mountaineer	R4	If the pace stays honest (55%): #7 American of Course If the pace is controlled (45%): #8 Divine Cross ★	2/1 3/1	PEND PEND
9:30 PM	Mountaineer	R7	If the pace stays honest (70%): #8 Summersattheshore	2/1	PEND
9:55 PM	Mountaineer	R8	If the pace stays honest (70%): #12 Johnnyfrenchfri ★	3/1	PEND

★ = the pick was not the morning-line favorite.
The HOT badge marks the race shape our settled record wins most — controlled pace on top, a clear late-graph leader, no synthetic surface.
PEND — the pick was scratched in the official chart and no filed backup ran, so the play is a refund. It is not a result still missing.
When a pick is scratched and a filed backup ran, the leg settles on that backup — the pick that would have been filed had the scratches been known — and counts in the scorecard.
Counter-move legs (v2.9 §16) are extra $2 win legs filed in races with no strong favorite; they count in the scorecard and carry no scratch backup — a scratched counter leg is a refund.
Pace-price legs (v3.0 §19) are the race's headline pace pick at 2/1–7/2; standalone legs count in the scorecard and carry no scratch backup — a scratched pace-price leg is a refund. A PACE-PRICE tag on a pair or counter leg marks the same horse and is reported as a memo line only, never counted twice.
Payouts are the official $2 payoffs. Full race-by-race results with WIN/PLACE/SHOW banners: see the Results Archive.
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The picks, the pace sheets, and the podcast are all produced by AI. Rankings follow the morning line.