THOROUGHWIZ
The Tip Sheet — Results
Every pick from the day's selections sheet, settled against the official results.
Monday, November 2, 2026 · 37 picks · All times ET
Page built November 2, 2026 · 8:03 PM ET — if this stamp looks old, refresh the page.
Place bets: 34 settled · $68 place bets → $38.96 · ROI -42.7%
Show bets: 34 settled · $68 show bets → $48.08 · ROI -29.3% — 1 in-the-money leg(s) had no show price in the official chart and count $0.
Consensus sheet races: 25 settled · 8 winners · W-P-S 8-3-5 · $50 win bets → $28.62 · WIN ROI -42.8% · PLACE ROI -41.7% · SHOW ROI -21.6% — the picks from the 28 races printed on the day's Consensus Sheet, scored separately; a subset of the scorecard above, not added to it.
Races settled: 30 of 34 — the two scenario picks still file, but the math settles ONE $2 win pick per race: the official pick. From the 2026-11-01 card the official pick is chosen by the margin rule (protocol v3.8 §23): of the two scenario horses, the one that stands clearest of the field on its own pace graph — slot 1 unless that margin puts the official pick on the second scenario's horse (earlier days filed no margin choice and settle on slot 1). If the official pick is scratched, the other scenario's pick is the first backup, then the official pick's filed alternate, then the other scenario's alternate (single-pick accounting, Douglas 2026-11-01; margin rule v3.8).
31 race(s) filed one pick only — the second scenario fell below the likelihood floor (v2.2); that pick is the official pick and its filed alternate is its backup.
Official picks: 30 settled · 12 winners · $60 win bets → $44.18 · ROI -26.4%
Backup chain: 2 official pick(s) were scratched and settled on the first backup that ran; 0 race(s) had every horse in the chain scratched and count no leg.
Winner was the official pick: 12 of 30 races.
Counter-move legs (v2.9 §16): 4 settled · 0 winners · $8 win bets → $0.00 · ROI -100.0% — counted in the scorecard above.
In the money: 21 of 34 pick legs (62%) finished 1st, 2nd or 3rd.
The 12 winners paid an average of $3.68 on a $2 win ticket.
Across the board: $2 win-place-show on every pick — $178 → $131.22 · ROI -26.3%. (1 pool stake(s) refunded — the chart printed no price for that pool.)
Scratches: 2 official pick(s) were scratched in the official chart. Those legs settle on the first backup in the chain that actually ran — the other scenario's pick first, then the official pick's filed alternate, then the other scenario's alternate — and the scorecard above counts them.
As filed (before scratches): 32 settled · 11 winners · $64 win bets → $36.58 · ROI -42.8%
★ BEST BET OF THE DAY
12:15 PM ET · Mahoning Valley · Race 1
6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance 36200n4L
IF THE PACE STAYS HONEST (70%)
#3 Onirico 2/1OUT
Trainer: Richard Estvanko · Jockey: Jose A Bracho
Won by #1 Jac's Doe Maker — paid $7.60
Onirico leads both graphs with a clear-margin late lead of 31 for Richard Estvanko/Jose A Bracho at 122 lb, a raw late figure at the top of the scale besides; he is the whole race on the sheet
The price: 2/1 favorite, clear of the next choice at 5/2 — priced shortest on the sheet evidence in the why; the line and the sheet agree here
COUNTER-MOVE (V2.9 §16)
#5 Kickstart 5/2OUT
Won by #1 Jac's Doe Maker — paid $7.60
Counter-move (section 16): Kickstart is the frozen formula's top non-favorite in a marked race with no strong favorite - OUR weight 121 lb, finished 1/7 last out - filed as an extra leg alongside the pair.
NEXT BEST
8:15 PM ET · Mountaineer · Race 4
1 Mile · Dirt · ROC 20-40
IF THE PACE STAYS HONEST (70%)
#10 Gametime Gladiator 4/1RESULT PENDING
Trainer: Julie Mathes · Jockey: Luis A Batista
Gametime Gladiator is promoted from the filed backup after Patriarchal's scratch and answers the same honest-pace scenario on the reshaped field: he is top-2 in both graphs while holding the blended late-graph lead (81) for Julie Mathes/Luis A Batista at 121 lb, and the blend makes him the reshaped field's most likely winner
The price: 4/1 favorite among the survivors, clear of the next choices at 5/1 — after the favorite's scratch the line and the sheet agree here; the blend prices him top at 0.21
FEATURED PLAY
3:03 PM ET · Mahoning Valley · Race 7
6 Furlongs · Dirt · OC 25000n3x
IF THE PACE STAYS HONEST (70%)
#7 Dark Vintage 7/2WIN
Trainer: Scott Becker · Jockey: Alexander Bendezu
Paid $3.20 to win ($2)
Dark Vintage holds a clear class edge on the sheet for Scott Becker/Alexander Bendezu at 141 lb — the field's highest OUR weight by 7 lb, dropping in class off a good last race, and the blend's top horse; his late figure (92) is a head behind the graph lead in a race full of cheap speed
The price: 7/2 favorite, clear of the next choice at 4/1 — priced shortest on the class evidence in the why; the line and the sheet agree here
The Cheat Sheet — Settled
| POST | TRACK | RACE | SELECTION | ML | RESULT | CHART |
|---|
| 12:05 PM | Parx | R1 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #4 Vandalism ★ | 7/2 | WIN $7.60 | Official chart |
| 2:05 PM | Zia Park | R1 | If the pace is controlled (70%): #4 Amazing Music | 8/5 | PLACE | Official chart |
| 12:10 PM | Finger Lakes | R1 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #5 Stars N Stones | 5/2 | WIN $4.38 | Official chart |
| 12:15 PM | Mahoning Valley | R1 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #3 Onirico Counter-move (§16): #5 Kickstart | 2/1
5/2 | OUT
OUT | Official chart |
| 12:32 PM | Parx | R2 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #4 Cojelo Pa Ti | 2/1 | SHOW | Official chart |
| 12:38 PM | Finger Lakes | R2 | If the pace is controlled (70%): #2 Ry's Advantage | 2/1 | WIN $2.60 | Official chart |
| 12:43 PM | Mahoning Valley | R2 | If the pace is controlled (55%): #1 Miss Lora Ann ★ If the pace stays honest (45%): #7 Playkoz ★ | 5/2
3/1 | OUT
OUT | Official chart |
| 12:59 PM | Parx HOT | R3 | If the pace is controlled (70%): #6 My Last Mission | 6/5 | PLACE | Official chart |
| 1:06 PM | Finger Lakes | R3 | If the pace is controlled (55%): #4 Escape Hall If the pace stays honest (45%): #1 Montauk Memoirs ★ | 8/5
3/1 | WIN $3.78
OUT | Official chart |
| 1:26 PM | Parx | R4 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #5 Prayed Up ★ | 5/1 | SHOW | Official chart |
| 1:30 PM | Horseshoe Indianapolis | R1 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #4 Organized | 3/1 | OUT | Official chart |
| 1:34 PM | Finger Lakes | R4 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #1 Bourbon Chase | 8/5 | WIN $3.36 | Official chart |
| 1:39 PM | Mahoning Valley | R4 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #6 Beautiful Crazy Counter-move (§16): #5 Fair Trade | 5/2
7/2 | PLACE
OUT | Official chart |
| 1:53 PM | Parx | R5 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #3 Yourownspecialway | 2/1 | WIN $2.40 | Official chart |
| 3:53 PM | Zia Park | R5 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #3 One Horse Town ★ | 3/1 | OUT | Official chart |
| 2:03 PM | Finger Lakes | R5 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #2 Rock Steady Babe | 5/2 | WIN $2.96 | Official chart |
| 2:07 PM | Mahoning Valley | R5 | If the pace is controlled (70%): #6 Rabbi Rosette | 2/1 | OUT | Official chart |
| 2:20 PM | Parx | R6 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #7 Shes the Tall One | 9/5 | SHOW | Official chart |
| 4:20 PM | Zia Park | R6 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #8 Bode's Lady | 2/1 | OUT | Official chart |
| 2:30 PM | Horseshoe Indianapolis | R3 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #7 She's Honed In | 5/2 | WIN $5.00 | Official chart |
| 2:32 PM | Finger Lakes | R6 | If the pace is controlled (55%): #6 Good Cop If the pace stays honest (45%): #4 Followill ★ | 2/1
3/1 | SHOW
WIN $3.70 | Official chart |
| 2:35 PM | Mahoning Valley | R6 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #3 Blazing Burroughs | 5/2 | OUT | Official chart |
| 2:47 PM | Parx | R7 | If the pace is controlled (70%): #3 Chef Sparrow | 9/5 | OUT | Official chart |
| 4:47 PM | Zia Park | R7 | If the pace is controlled (70%): #4 He's So Smooth | 9/5 | OUT | Official chart |
| 3:03 PM | Mahoning Valley | R7 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #7 Dark Vintage | 7/2 | WIN $3.20 | Official chart |
| 3:14 PM | Parx | R8 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #4 Welovemollynteddy | 2/1 | WIN $2.60 | Official chart |
| 3:41 PM | Parx | R9 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #1 Miss Anna Bella | 7/2 | SHOW | Official chart |
| 5:41 PM | Zia Park | R9 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #3 R R Bougie | 7/5 | SHOW | Official chart |
| 5:00 PM | Horseshoe Indianapolis | R8 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #9 Coach Knight Counter-move (§16): #7 Little Jake | 4/1
9/2 | SHOW
OUT | Official chart |
| 7:00 PM | Mountaineer | R1 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #3 Mykonos Counter-move (§16): #1 Finn d'Oro | 2/1
7/2 | WIN $2.60
OUT | Official chart |
| 8:15 PM | Mountaineer | R4 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #10 Gametime Gladiator | 4/1 | PEND | |
| 8:40 PM | Mountaineer | R5 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #5 Holly Roller ★ | 5/1 | PEND | |
| 9:05 PM | Mountaineer | R6 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #6 Maci's World | 2/1 | PEND | |
| 9:55 PM | Mountaineer | R8 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #2 Lomachenko Counter-move (§16): #10 Bohemian Style | 2/1
4/1 | PEND
PEND | |