THOROUGHWIZ
The Tip Sheet — Results
Every pick from the day's selections sheet, settled against the official results.
Tuesday, November 3, 2026 · 29 picks · All times ET
Page built November 3, 2026 · 8:00 PM ET — if this stamp looks old, refresh the page.
Place bets: 22 settled · $44 place bets → $36.14 · ROI -17.9%
Show bets: 22 settled · $44 show bets → $35.48 · ROI -19.4%
Consensus sheet races: 20 settled · 6 winners · W-P-S 6-4-4 · $40 win bets → $39.34 · WIN ROI -1.6% · PLACE ROI -17.1% · SHOW ROI -16.8% — the picks from the 26 races printed on the day's Consensus Sheet, scored separately; a subset of the scorecard above, not added to it.
Races settled: 20 of 24 — the two scenario picks still file, but the math settles ONE $2 win pick per race: the official pick. From the 2026-11-01 card the official pick is chosen by the margin rule (protocol v3.8 §23): of the two scenario horses, the one that stands clearest of the field on its own pace graph — slot 1 unless that margin puts the official pick on the second scenario's horse (earlier days filed no margin choice and settle on slot 1). If the official pick is scratched, the other scenario's pick is the first backup, then the official pick's filed alternate, then the other scenario's alternate (single-pick accounting, Douglas 2026-11-01; margin rule v3.8).
19 race(s) filed one pick only — the second scenario fell below the likelihood floor (v2.2); that pick is the official pick and its filed alternate is its backup.
Official picks: 20 settled · 5 winners · $40 win bets → $24.14 · ROI -39.6%
Winner was the official pick: 5 of 20 races.
Counter-move legs (v2.9 §16): 2 settled · 1 winners · $4 win bets → $15.20 · ROI +280.0% — counted in the scorecard above.
In the money: 15 of 22 pick legs (68%) finished 1st, 2nd or 3rd.
The 6 winners paid an average of $6.56 on a $2 win ticket.
Across the board: $2 win-place-show on every pick — $120 → $85.76 · ROI -28.5%.
★ BEST BET OF THE DAY
9:30 PM ET · Mountaineer · Race 7
6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance 21000b
IF THE PACE STAYS HONEST (55%)
#3 Petesoldfashioned ★ 7/2RESULT PENDING
Trainer: Juan P Silva · Jockey: Jose A Leon
Petesoldfashioned is promoted from the filed backup after Cybertime's scratch: among the survivors he is top-two on both graphs (early 80, blended late 79) and second on the blend at 0.26, behind only Uncashed — the reshaped field's pick under the pace-stays-honest scenario (blend margin -0.16 against the favorite's 0.43, so the filing rests on the backup promotion, not a deviation gate)
The price: 7/2 — promoted from the filed backup after Cybertime (5/2) scratched (Equibase changes, Nov 3, 7:15 PM ET update); re-priced at 0.26 by proportional renormalization of the blend on the reshaped field
IF THE PACE IS CONTROLLED (45%)
#6 Uncashed ★ 3/1RESULT PENDING
Trainer: Larry Rivelli · Jockey: Walter A Rodriguez
Uncashed is the field's clear early-graph leader (97) and second on the blended late graph (78) — if the pace is controlled, the lone-speed picture is his and his finish holds the closers off
The price: 3/1 second choice — he has been away a long time (262 days), which the price reflects; the sheet's early figure is the reason he still files
NEXT BEST
12:43 PM ET · Mahoning Valley · Race 2
6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance 26400n3L
IF THE PACE STAYS HONEST (60%)
#6 Redacted 2/1OUT
Trainer: Anthony Farrior · Jockey: Luis R Rivera
Won by #3 Call Shadd — paid $7.00
Redacted is the blend's top horse and carries the draw edge from post 6 (index 1.408) at 125 lb; the early pressure here is real but his stalking trip keeps him in front of the closers late
The price: 2/1 favorite over the 5/2 second choice — a short price the sheet supports only through the draw edge and the blend lead, so the support is stated plainly
IF THE PACE STAYS HONEST (60%)
#6 Redacted 2/1OUT
Trainer: Anthony Farrior · Jockey: Luis R Rivera
Won by #3 Call Shadd — paid $7.00
Official under the §26 consensus confirmation (v3.16): the filed official, Distant Galaxy (3/1), totals 11 consensus points; Redacted (2/1) totals 16 and heads the morning-line top four — the five factors (morning line, weight, speed, early pace, draw) do not confirm the filed pick even with its 5-point pick-column score, so the official pick is Redacted. The displaced horse leaves the backup chain; the other scenario's horse is the first backup.
The price: 2/1 — the §26 consensus pick (consensus totals 16 to the filed official's 11); the filed case horse was Distant Galaxy at 3/1
FEATURED PLAY
6:08 PM ET · Zia Park · Race 10
6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance 55000n3L
IF THE PACE STAYS HONEST (70%)
#8 Chivalrous ★ 5/12ND · PLACE
Trainer: Dick Cappellucci · Jockey: Oscar Andrade Jr.
Placed — paid $3.00 to place ($2). Won by #10 Remember Big Jim
Official under the §26 consensus confirmation (v3.16): the filed official, Woodson (6/1), totals 5 consensus points; Chivalrous (5/1) totals 7 and heads the morning-line top four — the five factors (morning line, weight, speed, early pace, draw) do not confirm the filed pick even with its 5-point pick-column score, so the official pick is Chivalrous. The displaced horse leaves the backup chain; the other scenario's horse is the first backup.
The price: 5/1 — the §26 consensus pick (consensus totals 7 to the filed official's 5); the filed case horse was Woodson at 6/1
The Cheat Sheet — Settled
| POST | TRACK | RACE | SELECTION | ML | RESULT | CHART |
|---|
| 12:32 PM | Parx | R2 | If the pace is controlled (70%): #3 Talented Man ★ | 5/1 | OUT | Official chart |
| 12:43 PM | Mahoning Valley | R2 | If the pace stays honest (60%): #6 Redacted If the pace stays honest (60%): #6 Redacted | 2/1
2/1 | OUT
OUT | Official chart |
| 12:59 PM | Parx | R3 | If the pace is controlled (65%): #2 Phantom Slayer | 2/1 | SHOW | Official chart |
| 1:06 PM | Finger Lakes | R3 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #4 Noguchi | 2/1 | PLACE | Official chart |
| 1:11 PM | Mahoning Valley | R3 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #6 Cool Couple | 5/2 | OUT | Official chart |
| 1:26 PM | Parx | R4 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #4 Brentwood Counter-move (§16): #6 Fully Authorized | 2/1
7/2 | WIN $5.80
OUT | Official chart |
| 1:34 PM | Finger Lakes | R4 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #1 Black Powder | 7/5 | SHOW | Official chart |
| 1:53 PM | Parx | R5 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #6 Critical Magic | 3/1 | OUT | Official chart |
| 2:03 PM | Finger Lakes | R5 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #8 Here'syourtrouble | 5/2 | WIN $3.54 | Official chart |
| 2:47 PM | Parx | R7 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #4 Nikki's Charm | 2/1 | WIN $3.20 | Official chart |
| 3:00 PM | Horseshoe Indianapolis | R4 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #1 Gonna Be Golden | 3/1 | OUT | Official chart |
| 3:01 PM | Finger Lakes | R7 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #3 Montauk Surf | 2/1 | OUT | Official chart |
| 3:03 PM | Mahoning Valley | R7 | If the pace stays honest (55%): #1 Vesper Martini ★ If the pace is controlled (45%): #5 Catpuccino | 3/1
5/2 | WIN $6.00
SHOW | Official chart |
| 3:14 PM | Parx | R8 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #6 Preacha Meyers | 3/1 | WIN $5.60 | Official chart |
| 3:31 PM | Mahoning Valley | R8 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #5 Kozem | 5/2 | PLACE | Official chart |
| 3:41 PM | Parx | R9 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #1 Guapo Again | 3/1 | SHOW | Official chart |
| 5:41 PM | Zia Park | R9 | If the pace stays honest (55%): #4 Itsmybirthday If the pace stays honest (55%): #4 Itsmybirthday | 5/2
5/2 | SHOW
SHOW | Official chart |
| 4:00 PM | Horseshoe Indianapolis | R6 | If the pace stays honest (55%): #10 Woodcourt If the pace stays honest (55%): #10 Woodcourt | 3/1
3/1 | PLACE
PLACE | Official chart |
| 6:08 PM | Zia Park | R10 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #8 Chivalrous ★ | 5/1 | PLACE | Official chart |
| 5:30 PM | Horseshoe Indianapolis | R9 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #8 Large Pour Counter-move (§16): #5 Oil Man | 2/1
9/2 | PLACE
WIN $15.20 | Official chart |
| 7:50 PM | Mountaineer | R3 | If the pace is controlled (70%): #3 S S Rum Runner Counter-move (§16): #5 Azario | 2/1
6/1 | PEND
PEND | |
| 8:40 PM | Mountaineer | R5 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #10 Dreaming of Hope | 2/1 | PEND | |
| 9:30 PM | Mountaineer | R7 | If the pace stays honest (55%): #3 Petesoldfashioned ★ If the pace is controlled (45%): #6 Uncashed ★ | 7/2
3/1 | PEND
PEND | |
| 9:55 PM | Mountaineer | R8 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #4 Rocky Colavito Counter-move (§16): #2 Shore Time | 2/1
3/1 | PEND
PEND | |