THOROUGHWIZ
The Tip Sheet — Results
Every pick from the day's selections sheet, settled against the official results.
Thursday, November 5, 2026 · 45 picks · All times ET
Page built November 5, 2026 · 8:19 PM ET — if this stamp looks old, refresh the page.
Place bets: 39 settled · $78 place bets → $87.08 · ROI +11.6%
Show bets: 39 settled · $78 show bets → $79.70 · ROI +2.2%
Consensus sheet races: 35 settled · 12 winners · W-P-S 12-11-3 · $70 win bets → $81.08 · WIN ROI +15.8% · PLACE ROI +11.3% · SHOW ROI +3.4% — the picks from the 41 races printed on the day's Consensus Sheet, scored separately; a subset of the scorecard above, not added to it.
Races settled: 32 of 41 — the two scenario picks still file, but the math settles ONE $2 win pick per race: the official pick. From the 2026-11-01 card the official pick is chosen by the margin rule (protocol v3.8 §23): of the two scenario horses, the one that stands clearest of the field on its own pace graph — slot 1 unless that margin puts the official pick on the second scenario's horse (earlier days filed no margin choice and settle on slot 1). If the official pick is scratched, the other scenario's pick is the first backup, then the official pick's filed alternate, then the other scenario's alternate (single-pick accounting, Douglas 2026-11-01; margin rule v3.8).
37 race(s) filed one pick only — the second scenario fell below the likelihood floor (v2.2); that pick is the official pick and its filed alternate is its backup.
Official picks: 32 settled · 11 winners · $64 win bets → $63.58 · ROI -0.7%
Backup chain: 2 official pick(s) were scratched and settled on the first backup that ran; 0 race(s) had every horse in the chain scratched and count no leg.
Winner was the official pick: 11 of 32 races.
Counter-move legs (v2.9 §16): 7 settled · 3 winners · $14 win bets → $32.26 · ROI +130.4% — counted in the scorecard above. 1 counter leg(s) scratched — refunded (a counter leg has no backup).
In the money: 28 of 39 pick legs (72%) finished 1st, 2nd or 3rd.
The 14 winners paid an average of $6.85 on a $2 win ticket.
Across the board: $2 win-place-show on every pick — $192 → $202.02 · ROI +5.2%.
Scratches: 2 official pick(s) were scratched in the official chart. Those legs settle on the first backup in the chain that actually ran — the other scenario's pick first, then the official pick's filed alternate, then the other scenario's alternate — and the scorecard above counts them.
As filed (before scratches): 37 settled · 13 winners · $74 win bets → $93.44 · ROI +26.3%
★ BEST BET OF THE DAY
5:45 PM ET · Penn National · Race 1
1m70yds · Dirt · Allowance 41000n1x
IF THE PACE IS CONTROLLED (55%)
#2 Our Notion 2/12ND · PLACE
Trainer: Jamie Ness · Jockey: Martin Chuan
Placed — paid $2.10 to place ($2). Won by #3 Tug
Our Notion is the morning-line favorite and the blend's top probability (0.300) with a named sheet edge — the field's clear early-graph lead (early 100); with one other early horse he controls the route pace that stalkers have been winning from here.
The price: 2/1 favorite over the 3/1 second choice — the line's top choice and the blend's top probability.
IF THE PACE STAYS HONEST (45%)
#1 Standpoint ★ 3/1OUT
Trainer: Murray L Rojas · Jockey: Martina Rojas
Won by #3 Tug — paid $29.00
Standpoint leads the blended late graph (84) with the field's best raw late figure (#1) — a named sheet edge; when the pace stays honest rather than controlled, his finish is the strongest in the race. The field has no clear-margin qualifier, so the pick rests on that raw late figure as the second edge.
The price: 3/1 second choice — priced just behind the favorite, and the sheet's late graph puts him on top.
NEXT BEST
4:55 PM ET · Churchill Downs · Race 9
1 Mile · Dirt · Allowance 127000n1x
IF THE PACE STAYS HONEST (70%)
#1 Zimmer 6/5WIN
Trainer: Michael Stidham · Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
Paid $3.74 to win ($2)
Zimmer is the morning-line favorite with a hard sheet edge — he leads both graphs (early 94, late 95, profile (a)) with a clear-margin late lead of 45 in a 16-horse allowance field.
The price: 6/5 favorite over the 9/2 second choice — a short price with the widest two-graph control on the card, which meets the price floor's hard edge.
FEATURED PLAY
1:58 PM ET · Churchill Downs · Race 3
6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance 50000s
IF THE PACE STAYS HONEST (65%)
#2 Cardio Cat ★ 7/2OUT
Trainer: Steven M Asmussen · Jockey: Jose L Ortiz
Won by #8 Smoted — paid $4.86
Official under the §26 consensus confirmation (v3.17): the filed official, Smoted (6/5), totals 11 consensus points; Cardio Cat (7/2) totals 17 and heads the morning-line top four — the five factors (morning line, weight, speed, early pace, draw) do not confirm the filed pick even with its 5-point pick-column score, so the official pick is Cardio Cat. The displaced horse leaves the backup chain; the other scenario's horse is the first backup.
The price: 7/2 — the §26 consensus pick (consensus totals 17 to the filed official's 11); the filed case horse was Smoted at 6/5
The Cheat Sheet — Settled
| POST | TRACK | RACE | SELECTION | ML | RESULT | CHART |
|---|
| 12:05 PM | Parx | R1 | If the pace stays honest (60%): #4 Bloody Colors Wave | 5/2 | PLACE | Official chart |
| 12:15 PM | Mahoning Valley | R1 | If the pace is controlled (65%): #3 Bumpkin | 9/5 | SHOW | Official chart |
| 12:43 PM | Mahoning Valley | R2 | If the pace is controlled (60%): #6 Blumoon Fire Counter-move (§16): #5 She's Chloe | 5/2
3/1 | OUT
OUT | Official chart |
| 12:59 PM | Parx | R3 | If the pace stays honest (65%): #2 Compass Rises | 5/2 | PLACE | Official chart |
| 1:00 PM | Churchill Downs | R1 | If the pace stays honest (65%): #3 Givemethebeat Counter-move (§16): #1 Flaming Mama | 2/1
5/1 | PLACE
WIN $9.40 | Official chart |
| 1:10 PM | Belmont Park | R2 | If the pace is controlled (70%): #3 Sky Chart | 8/5 | OUT | Official chart |
| 1:26 PM | Parx | R4 | If the pace stays honest (60%): #5 Cash the Check ★ | 3/1 | OUT | Official chart |
| 1:29 PM | Churchill Downs | R2 | If the pace stays honest (55%): #10 Farrokh ★ | 8/1 | WIN $8.64 | Official chart |
| 1:30 PM | Horseshoe Indianapolis HOT | R1 | If the pace is controlled (55%): #1 Bourbon Curiosity If the pace stays honest (45%): #6 Leo Springs ★ | 2/1
5/2 | PLACE
WIN | Official chart |
| 1:58 PM | Churchill Downs | R3 | If the pace stays honest (65%): #2 Cardio Cat ★ | 7/2 | OUT | Official chart |
| 2:02 PM | Horseshoe Indianapolis | R2 | If the pace stays honest (60%): #4 Ekati Flatter Counter-move (§16): #1 Momentario | 2/1
7/2 | WIN $6.20
OUT | Official chart |
| 2:10 PM | Belmont Park | R4 | If the pace stays honest (60%): #1 Lough Currane | 3/1 | WIN $7.34 | Official chart |
| 2:20 PM | Parx | R6 | If the pace stays honest (55%): #6 Lady Emily Kathryn (promoted — filed pick #3 Chelsea Wall scratched) | 4/1 | OUT | Official chart |
| 2:47 PM | Parx | R7 | If the pace stays honest (60%): #4 Zeus' War (promoted — filed pick #6 Marvelous Mo scratched) | 4/1 | WIN $2.40 | Official chart |
| 2:57 PM | Churchill Downs | R5 | If the pace is controlled (60%): #2 Hillbilly Daydream Counter-move (§16): #4 Merited | 2/1
4/1 | PLACE
WIN $8.26 | Official chart |
| 3:03 PM | Mahoning Valley | R7 | If the pace stays honest (60%): #5 Sunny Lion Counter-move (§16): #4 Pride and Attitude | 3/1
9/2 | SHOW
OUT | Official chart |
| 3:12 PM | Belmont Park HOT | R6 | If the pace is controlled (55%): #4 General Partner If the pace stays honest (45%): #2 Two Eagles River ★ | 2/1
5/2 | OUT
WIN | Official chart |
| 3:14 PM | Parx | R8 | If the pace stays honest (60%): #2 Racey Ruby ★ | 7/2 | SHOW | Official chart |
| 3:26 PM | Churchill Downs | R6 | If the pace stays honest (65%): #10 Raising Kane | 3/1 | WIN $6.04 | Official chart |
| 3:55 PM | Churchill Downs | R7 | If the pace stays honest (60%): #1 Boonesboro | 4/1 | OUT | Official chart |
| 4:37 PM | Woodbine | R4 | If the pace is controlled (65%): #3 Crystal Pearl | 9/5 | PLACE | Official chart |
| 4:55 PM | Churchill Downs | R9 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #1 Zimmer | 6/5 | WIN $3.74 | Official chart |
| 5:06 PM | Woodbine | R5 | If the pace stays honest (60%): #4 Twisting Pistons Counter-move (§16): #6 Amazin Queen | 2/1
4/1 | WIN $4.50
PEND | Official chart |
| 5:07 PM | Horseshoe Indianapolis | R8 | If the pace stays honest (60%): #9 Audubon Bay | 5/2 | PLACE | Official chart |
| 6:08 PM | Delta Downs | R2 | If the pace stays honest (65%): #2 Gomarkgo Counter-move (§16): #10 Quikonthetrigger | 3/1
4/1 | PLACE
WIN $14.60 | Official chart |
| 5:24 PM | Churchill Downs | R10 | If the pace stays honest (65%): #8 Uppity | 7/2 | WIN $6.12 | Official chart |
| 6:36 PM | Delta Downs | R3 | If the pace stays honest (60%): #9 Ayden's Edge ★ | 7/2 | PLACE | Official chart |
| 5:45 PM | Penn National | R1 | If the pace is controlled (55%): #2 Our Notion If the pace stays honest (45%): #1 Standpoint ★ | 2/1
3/1 | PLACE
OUT | Official chart |
| 6:04 PM | Woodbine | R7 | If the pace stays honest (65%): #1 Elgin Park | 7/5 | PEND | |
| 6:14 PM | Penn National | R2 | If the pace is controlled (65%): #3 She's a Bombshell | 9/5 | WIN $3.80 | Official chart |
| 6:33 PM | Woodbine | R8 | If the pace stays honest (65%): #6 Lady Dayrells | 5/2 | PEND | |
| 6:43 PM | Penn National | R3 | If the pace stays honest (65%): #5 Sassy Sangria | 5/2 | OUT | Official chart |
| 7:58 PM | Remington Park | R2 | If the pace stays honest (60%): #4 P R the Holy Man If the lone speed gets loose (40%): #7 Amazing Chaos ★ | 5/2
7/2 | PEND
PEND | |
| 7:00 PM | Charles Town | R1 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #4 Kiss Cam Counter-move (§16): #3 Dame Catherine | 5/2
3/1 | WIN $5.00
PLACE | Official chart |
| 7:12 PM | Penn National | R4 | If the pace stays honest (60%): #6 Altobelli ★ | 4/1 | WIN $9.80 | Official chart |
| 8:28 PM | Delta Downs | R7 | If the pace stays honest (60%): #7 I Forgot the Time ★ | 7/2 | PEND | |
| 7:41 PM | Penn National | R5 | If the pace stays honest (60%): #4 Kelly's Into Luck | 5/2 | PEND | |
| 8:54 PM | Remington Park | R4 | If the pace is controlled (70%): #5 Braken Good | 3/5 | PEND | |
| 7:57 PM | Charles Town | R3 | If the pace is controlled (65%): #3 Be My Idol | 5/2 | PEND | |
| 9:49 PM | Charles Town | R7 | If the pace is controlled (60%): #3 Hammer | 7/5 | PEND | |
| 10:17 PM | Charles Town | R8 | If the pace stays honest (60%): #1 Run of the House | 2/1 | PEND | |