THOROUGHWIZ

The Tip Sheet — Results

Every pick from the day's selections sheet, settled against the official results.

Saturday, November 7, 2026 · 54 picks · All times ET

Page built November 8, 2026 · 12:49 AM ET — if this stamp looks old, refresh the page.

PICK LEGS SETTLED

WINNERS

16-16-12

WIN-PLACE-SHOW

$126

$2 WIN BETS

$125.36

RETURNED

-0.5%

WIN ROI

-7.2%

PLACE ROI

-13.6%

SHOW ROI

Place bets: 63 settled · $126 place bets → $116.96 · ROI -7.2% — 1 in-the-money leg(s) had no place price in the official chart and count $0.

Show bets: 63 settled · $126 show bets → $108.90 · ROI -13.6% — 4 in-the-money leg(s) had no show price in the official chart and count $0.

Consensus sheet races: 53 settled · 16 winners · W-P-S 16-12-11 · $106 win bets → $125.36 · WIN ROI +18.3% · PLACE ROI -2.3% · SHOW ROI -9.2% — the picks from the 49 races printed on the day's Consensus Sheet, scored separately; a subset of the scorecard above, not added to it.

Races settled: 50 of 50 — the two scenario picks still file, but the math settles ONE $2 win pick per race: the official pick. From the 2026-11-01 card the official pick is chosen by the margin rule (protocol v3.8 §23): of the two scenario horses, the one that stands clearest of the field on its own pace graph — slot 1 unless that margin puts the official pick on the second scenario's horse (earlier days filed no margin choice and settle on slot 1). If the official pick is scratched, the other scenario's pick is the first backup, then the official pick's filed alternate, then the other scenario's alternate (single-pick accounting, Douglas 2026-11-01; margin rule v3.8).

46 race(s) filed one pick only — the second scenario fell below the likelihood floor (v2.2); that pick is the official pick and its filed alternate is its backup.

Official picks: 50 settled · 12 winners · $100 win bets → $78.16 · ROI -21.8%

Winner was the official pick: 12 of 50 races.

Counter-move legs (v2.9 §16): 13 settled · 4 winners · $26 win bets → $47.20 · ROI +81.5% — counted in the scorecard above. 2 counter leg(s) scratched — refunded (a counter leg has no backup).

In the money: 44 of 63 pick legs (70%) finished 1st, 2nd or 3rd.

The 16 winners paid an average of $7.84 on a $2 win ticket.

Across the board: $2 win-place-show on every pick — $290 → $239.16 · ROI -17.5%. (5 pool stake(s) refunded — the chart printed no price for that pool.)

As filed (before scratches): 63 settled · 16 winners · $126 win bets → $125.36 · ROI -0.5%

★ BEST BET OF THE DAY

8:32 PM ET · Charles Town · Race 4

7 Furlongs · Dirt · WVJuvnleB75K

IF THE PACE STAYS HONEST (60%)

#4 Jack Carson ★ 6/5WIN

Trainer: Jeff C Runco · Jockey: Arnaldo Bocachica

Paid $3.20 to win ($2)

Jack Carson holds a named sheet edge — a clear-margin late lead of 32 points (late 94, the field's best raw late figure too, profile (d)) in this four-horse juvenile stakes; the even-money favorite leads the early graph only and has no late-graph lead.

The price: 6/5 second choice — priced just behind the 1/1 favorite, and the sheet's late margin of 32 is one of the widest on the card.

Official chart

NEXT BEST

5:25 PM ET · Churchill Downs · Race 10

6 Furlongs · Dirt · BetOSnshnL300K

IF THE PACE STAYS HONEST (65%)

#7 Obliteration 7/2OUT

Trainer: Steven M Asmussen · Jockey: Luis Saez

Won by #3 Viking — paid $9.56

Obliteration is the morning-line favorite with a named sheet edge — a clear-margin blended late-graph lead of 23 points (late 84, profile (d)) plus the draw edge from post 7 in this sprint stakes; stalkers are winning 80% of dirt sprints here lately and he sits in that group.

The price: 7/2 favorite over the 9/2 second choice — the line's top choice, and the sheet's late margin confirms him by a wide gap.

COUNTER-MOVE (V2.9 §16)

#6 Echo Again 6/1OUT

Won by #3 Viking — paid $9.56

the counter-move formula's top non-favorite, at 124 lb on our weight scale; finished 2/7 last out

Official chart

FEATURED PLAY

2:10 PM ET · Belmont Park · Race 6

7 Furlongs · Dirt · PumkinPieL175K

IF THE PACE STAYS HONEST (70%)

#4 Senza Parole 3/53RD · SHOW

Trainer: Chad C Brown · Jockey: Flavien Prat

Senza Parole is the morning-line favorite with a hard sheet edge — she leads both graphs (early 90, late 92) with a clear-margin late lead of 41 points, the widest on the card, and the blend prices her at 0.61.

The price: 3/5 favorite — a very short price, but the two-graph control and the 41-point late margin meet the price floor's hard edge.

Official chart

The Cheat Sheet — Settled

POST	TRACK	RACE	SELECTION	ML	RESULT	CHART
11:40 AM	Belmont Park HOT	R1	If the pace is controlled (65%): #5 Wingfoot Official chart	8/5	SHOW	Official chart
12:20 PM	Gulfstream Park	R1	If the pace is controlled (65%): #8 Coralline Official chart	9/5	PLACE	Official chart
12:28 PM	Laurel Park HOT	R2	If the pace is controlled (65%): #7 Three Polks Official chart	2/1	PLACE	Official chart
12:40 PM	Belmont Park	R3	If the pace stays honest (60%): #3 Dear Chairman Official chart	2/1	WIN $7.12	Official chart
12:50 PM	Gulfstream Park	R2	If the pace is controlled (70%): #2 Far Right Official chart	3/5	OUT	Official chart
1:00 PM	Churchill Downs	R1	If the pace stays honest (65%): #3 Valiant Humor Official chart	7/5	WIN $3.92	Official chart
4:01 PM	Del Mar HOT	R2	If the pace is controlled (65%): #5 Driftingandreaming Official chart	8/5	OUT	Official chart
1:19 PM	Gulfstream Park	R3	If the pace is controlled (70%): #2 Breezey Z Official chart	8/5	WIN $3.60	Official chart
1:29 PM	Churchill Downs	R2	If the pace stays honest (60%): #6 Hey Dey Official chart	2/1	PLACE	Official chart
1:48 PM	Gulfstream Park	R4	If the pace stays honest (60%): #10 Jack's Honey Official chart	7/2	OUT	Official chart
1:54 PM	Laurel Park	R5	If the pace stays honest (65%): #10 Task Force Counter-move (§16): #3 Coco No Loco Official chart	2/1 7/2	SHOW OUT	Official chart
1:58 PM	Churchill Downs	R3	If the pace stays honest (60%): #5 Barksdale Official chart	9/5	PLACE	Official chart
5:01 PM	Del Mar	R4	If the pace stays honest (60%): #2 Cheever ★ Official chart	5/2	PLACE	Official chart
2:04 PM	Woodbine	R3	If the pace stays honest (60%): #4 Ivy's Mission Official chart	9/5	OUT	Official chart
2:10 PM	Belmont Park	R6	If the pace stays honest (70%): #4 Senza Parole Official chart	3/5	SHOW	Official chart
2:17 PM	Gulfstream Park	R5	If the pace stays honest (65%): #2 Mosai ★ Official chart	2/1	WIN $4.60	Official chart
2:28 PM	Churchill Downs	R4	If the pace stays honest (60%): #5 Queen of Queens Counter-move (§16): #7 Madeline's Promise Official chart	5/2 7/2	SHOW PLACE	Official chart
2:47 PM	Gulfstream Park	R6	If the pace is controlled (60%): #5 Noahs Pride ★ Official chart	2/1	SHOW	Official chart
2:52 PM	Laurel Park HOT	R7	If the pace is controlled (60%): #4 Weaver Counter-move (§16): #5 Can Am Winner Official chart	2/1 3/1	SHOW WIN $7.00	Official chart
6:03 PM	Del Mar	R6	If the pace stays honest (60%): #3 Forza Azzurri ★ Official chart	5/2	PLACE	Official chart
3:05 PM	Woodbine	R5	If the pace stays honest (55%): #1 Arrabbiata Official chart	9/5	OUT	Official chart
3:12 PM	Belmont Park	R8	If the pace stays honest (55%): #6 Ted Noffey If the pace stays honest (55%): #6 Ted Noffey Official chart	8/5 8/5	OUT OUT	Official chart
3:18 PM	Gulfstream Park	R7	If the pace stays honest (60%): #4 Tommy's Miracle ★ Official chart	5/2	PLACE	Official chart
3:26 PM	Churchill Downs	R6	If the pace stays honest (60%): #4 Cooke Creek If the pace is controlled (40%): #2 Poster ★ Counter-move (§16): #1 Gearing Up Official chart	5/2 3/1 7/2	SHOW WIN $4.82 PLACE	Official chart
3:43 PM	Belmont Park	R9	If the pace stays honest (65%): #7 Bodacious Bay Official chart	5/2	OUT	Official chart
3:48 PM	Gulfstream Park	R8	If the pace stays honest (65%): #8 Miss Mary Nell Counter-move (§16): #4 Fantasy Performer Official chart	5/2 3/1	WIN $6.40 PLACE	Official chart
3:52 PM	Laurel Park	R9	If the pace stays honest (65%): #3 Kilo Road Counter-move (§16): #1 Double Airo Official chart	2/1 3/1	SHOW WIN $5.40	Official chart
7:03 PM	Del Mar	R8	If the pace stays honest (60%): #5 Big City Lights Counter-move (§16): #1 Man O Rose Official chart	2/1 3/1	OUT OUT	Official chart
4:06 PM	Woodbine	R7	If the pace stays honest (65%): #4 Lupa Official chart	1/1	SHOW	Official chart
4:38 PM	Woodbine	R8	If the pace stays honest (60%): #6 Tuscany Rose Counter-move (§16): #1 Flatter for Cat Official chart	2/1 3/1	OUT WIN $10.20	Official chart
5:40 PM	Delta Downs	R1	If the pace stays honest (60%): #5 Paradise Ridge ★ Official chart	7/2	PLACE	Official chart
4:47 PM	Gulfstream Park	R10	If the pace stays honest (65%): #6 Mattingly Counter-move (§16): #7 Poulin in O T Official chart	5/2 9/2	WIN $6.00 PEND	Official chart
4:55 PM	Churchill Downs	R9	If the pace stays honest (65%): #2 Swift Speed Official chart	7/2	OUT	Official chart
6:08 PM	Delta Downs	R2	If the pace is controlled (60%): #1 Flame McGoon Counter-move (§16): #9 Mo's Little Darlin Official chart	5/2 7/2	PLACE PEND	Official chart
5:17 PM	Gulfstream Park	R11	If the pace stays honest (60%): #8 Bluff Official chart	5/2	OUT	Official chart
5:25 PM	Churchill Downs	R10	If the pace stays honest (65%): #7 Obliteration Counter-move (§16): #6 Echo Again Official chart	7/2 6/1	OUT OUT	Official chart
6:36 PM	Delta Downs	R3	If the pace stays honest (65%): #5 Golden Mist Official chart	5/2	SHOW	Official chart
5:42 PM	Woodbine	R10	If the pace stays honest (65%): #8 Reagan's Flame Counter-move (§16): #4 Creed's Gold Official chart	5/2 3/1	SHOW OUT	Official chart
6:12 PM	Woodbine	R11	If the pace stays honest (65%): #9 Xarabella Counter-move (§16): #4 Rule the Waves Official chart	5/2 3/1	WIN $6.30 SHOW	Official chart
7:32 PM	Delta Downs	R5	If the pace stays honest (60%): #5 Fierce Cat Official chart	3/1	OUT	Official chart
8:26 PM	Remington Park	R3	If the pace is controlled (65%): #6 Expect a Preacher Official chart	7/5	PLACE	Official chart
8:28 PM	Delta Downs	R7	If the pace is controlled (65%): #4 Old Homestead Official chart	8/5	OUT	Official chart
8:54 PM	Remington Park	R4	If the pace stays honest (60%): #3 Super Enticing ★ Counter-move (§16): #3 Super Enticing Official chart	3/1 3/1	WIN $24.60 WIN $24.60	Official chart
8:56 PM	Delta Downs	R8	If the pace stays honest (60%): #3 Inchhighatahundred If the pace stays honest (60%): #3 Inchhighatahundred Official chart	5/2 5/2	PLACE PLACE	Official chart
8:02 PM	Charles Town	R3	If the pace stays honest (60%): #2 Mr Scatter Official chart	5/2	PLACE	Official chart
9:24 PM	Delta Downs	R9	If the pace stays honest (60%): #6 Dr. Red Official chart	3/1	OUT	Official chart
8:32 PM	Charles Town	R4	If the pace stays honest (60%): #4 Jack Carson ★ Official chart	6/5	WIN $3.20	Official chart
10:18 PM	Remington Park	R7	If the pace is controlled (60%): #6 Rev's Tomb If the pace is controlled (60%): #6 Rev's Tomb Official chart	7/5 7/5	WIN WIN $4.20	Official chart
10:46 PM	Remington Park	R8	If the pace is controlled (65%): #6 Dont Worry Bout It Official chart	9/5	WIN $3.40	Official chart
10:32 PM	Charles Town	R8	If the pace stays honest (65%): #2 Hamdoun Counter-move (§16): #1 Vekoma Velocity Official chart	5/2 3/1	SHOW PLACE	Official chart

★ = the pick was not the morning-line favorite.
The HOT badge marks the race shape our settled record wins most — controlled pace on top, a clear late-graph leader, no synthetic surface.
PEND — the pick was scratched in the official chart and no filed backup ran, so the play is a refund. It is not a result still missing.
When a pick is scratched and a filed backup ran, the leg settles on that backup — the pick that would have been filed had the scratches been known — and counts in the scorecard.
Counter-move legs (v2.9 §16) are extra $2 win legs filed in races with no strong favorite; they count in the scorecard and carry no scratch backup — a scratched counter leg is a refund.
Pace-price legs (v3.0 §19) are the race's headline pace pick at 2/1–7/2; standalone legs count in the scorecard and carry no scratch backup — a scratched pace-price leg is a refund. A PACE-PRICE tag on a pair or counter leg marks the same horse and is reported as a memo line only, never counted twice.
Payouts are the official $2 payoffs. Full race-by-race results with WIN/PLACE/SHOW banners: see the Results Archive.
← This day in the Results Archive