THOROUGHWIZ
The Tip Sheet — Results
Every pick from the day's selections sheet, settled against the official results.
Tuesday, November 10, 2026 · 42 picks · All times ET
Page built November 11, 2026 · 12:47 AM ET — if this stamp looks old, refresh the page.
Place bets: 35 settled · $70 place bets → $45.00 · ROI -35.7%
Show bets: 35 settled · $70 show bets → $50.80 · ROI -27.4% — 3 in-the-money leg(s) had no show price in the official chart and count $0.
Consensus sheet races: 31 settled · 7 winners · W-P-S 7-6-7 · $62 win bets → $29.80 · WIN ROI -51.9% · PLACE ROI -36.1% · SHOW ROI -33.1% — the picks from the 31 races printed on the day's Consensus Sheet, scored separately; a subset of the scorecard above, not added to it.
Races settled: 33 of 33 — the two scenario picks still file, but the math settles ONE $2 win pick per race: the official pick. From the 2026-11-01 card the official pick is chosen by the margin rule (protocol v3.8 §23): of the two scenario horses, the one that stands clearest of the field on its own pace graph — slot 1 unless that margin puts the official pick on the second scenario's horse (earlier days filed no margin choice and settle on slot 1). If the official pick is scratched, the other scenario's pick is the first backup, then the official pick's filed alternate, then the other scenario's alternate (single-pick accounting, Douglas 2026-11-01; margin rule v3.8).
24 race(s) filed one pick only — the second scenario fell below the likelihood floor (v2.2); that pick is the official pick and its filed alternate is its backup.
Official picks: 33 settled · 8 winners · $66 win bets → $34.40 · ROI -47.9%
Winner was the official pick: 8 of 33 races.
Counter-move legs (v2.9 §16): 2 settled · 0 winners · $4 win bets → $0.00 · ROI -100.0% — counted in the scorecard above.
In the money: 24 of 35 pick legs (69%) finished 1st, 2nd or 3rd.
The 8 winners paid an average of $4.30 on a $2 win ticket.
Across the board: $2 win-place-show on every pick — $192 → $126.76 · ROI -34.0%. (3 pool stake(s) refunded — the chart printed no price for that pool.)
As filed (before scratches): 35 settled · 8 winners · $70 win bets → $34.40 · ROI -50.9%
★ BEST BET OF THE DAY
9:30 PM ET · Mountaineer · Race 7
6 Furlongs · Dirt · ROC 20-40
IF THE PACE STAYS HONEST (60%)
#4 Khozan's Valentine 2/1WIN
Trainer: Adrian M Salazar · Jockey: Alexander Bendezu
Paid $4.80 to win ($2)
Khozan's Valentine is the morning-line favorite with a named sheet edge — a clear-margin blended late-graph lead of 29 (late 96, profile (d)); also (a) leads both graphs in this 6 Furlongs Dirt race (ROC 20-40).
The price: 2/1 favorite over the 4/1 second choice — the line's top choice, with the sheet edge named in the why as its confirmation.
NEXT BEST
2:30 PM ET · Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 3
6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance 45000nc
IF THE PACE STAYS HONEST (60%)
#3 Tiz Eddie 6/5WIN
Trainer: Tomas Medina · Jockey: Mitchell Murrill
Paid $3.00 to win ($2)
Tiz Eddie is the morning-line favorite with a named sheet edge — a clear-margin blended late-graph lead of 17 (late 70, profile (d)); also (a) leads both graphs in this 6 Furlongs Dirt race (Allowance 45000nc).
The price: 6/5 favorite over the 7/2 second choice — the line's top choice, with the sheet edge named in the why as its confirmation.
IF THE PACE IS CONTROLLED (40%)
#4 Sleepy ★ 7/23RD · SHOW
Trainer: Randy L Klopp · Jockey: Joseph D Ramos
Showed — paid $2.20 to show ($2). Won by #3 Tiz Eddie
Sleepy holds a named sheet edge — (e) draw edge from post 4 (index 1.409) (late 46, early 34); under the second scenario the race is decided by that finish.
The price: 7/2 — priced behind the 6/5 favorite, and the sheet edge named in the why is its confirmation.
FEATURED PLAY
1:06 PM ET · Finger Lakes · Race 3
5½ Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance 27300b
IF THE PACE STAYS HONEST (60%)
#2 Paula's a Star 2/13RD · SHOW
Trainer: Thomas Morley · Jockey: Reylu Gutierrez
Showed — paid $2.10 to show ($2). Won by #3 Angel Gift
Paula's a Star is the morning-line favorite with a named sheet edge — (a) leads both graphs (late 85, early 100) in this 5½ Furlongs Dirt race (Allowance 27300b).
The price: 2/1 favorite over the 5/2 second choice — the line's top choice, with the sheet edge named in the why as its confirmation.
IF THE PACE IS CONTROLLED (40%)
#4 Daniella Marie ★ 7/22ND · PLACE
Trainer: Paul W Barrow · Jockey: Jeremias Flores
Placed — paid $2.44 to place ($2). Won by #3 Angel Gift
Daniella Marie holds a named sheet edge — (e) draw edge from post 4 (index 1.253) (late 72, early 54); under the second scenario the race is decided by that finish.
The price: 7/2 — priced behind the 2/1 favorite, and the sheet edge named in the why is its confirmation.
The Cheat Sheet — Settled
| POST | TRACK | RACE | SELECTION | ML | RESULT | CHART |
|---|
| 12:10 PM | Finger Lakes | R1 | If the pace stays honest (55%): #5 Always Packen If the pace is controlled (45%): #1 Mr. Pools ★ | 5/2
3/1 | SHOW
PLACE | Official chart |
| 12:15 PM | Mahoning Valley | R1 | If the pace stays honest (55%): #4 Our Last Song If the pace is controlled (45%): #2 Kat Trax ★ | 8/5
3/1 | WIN
PLACE | Official chart |
| 12:38 PM | Finger Lakes | R2 | If the pace stays honest (60%): #3 Rockin Red ★ | 5/1 | SHOW | Official chart |
| 12:59 PM | Parx HOT | R3 | If the pace is controlled (65%): #1 Mor Cheese Please | 9/5 | WIN $2.60 | Official chart |
| 2:59 PM | Zia Park | R3 | If the pace is controlled (65%): #6 Misinformation | 2/1 | SHOW | Official chart |
| 1:06 PM | Finger Lakes | R3 | If the pace stays honest (60%): #2 Paula's a Star If the pace is controlled (40%): #4 Daniella Marie ★ | 2/1
7/2 | SHOW
PLACE | Official chart |
| 1:11 PM | Mahoning Valley | R3 | If the pace stays honest (60%): #5 The Ace Project | 8/5 | WIN $4.60 | Official chart |
| 3:26 PM | Zia Park | R4 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #2 Alma's Grace | 5/2 | WIN $4.60 | Official chart |
| 1:30 PM | Horseshoe Indianapolis | R1 | If the pace stays honest (60%): #6 Amani's Music ★ | 3/1 | SHOW | Official chart |
| 1:34 PM | Finger Lakes | R4 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #7 Grand Warrior ★ | 5/1 | OUT | Official chart |
| 1:39 PM | Mahoning Valley | R4 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #2 All About Me | 5/2 | SHOW | Official chart |
| 2:00 PM | Horseshoe Indianapolis | R2 | If the pace stays honest (60%): #1 Blazing Freedom | 9/5 | OUT | Official chart |
| 2:03 PM | Finger Lakes | R5 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #2 Only in My Dreams ★ | 7/2 | PLACE | Official chart |
| 2:20 PM | Parx | R6 | If the pace stays honest (60%): #4 Rogue Justice Counter-move (§16): #2 Mischief Maxey | 3/1
5/1 | OUT
OUT | Official chart |
| 2:30 PM | Horseshoe Indianapolis | R3 | If the pace stays honest (60%): #3 Tiz Eddie If the pace is controlled (40%): #4 Sleepy ★ | 6/5
7/2 | WIN $3.00
SHOW | Official chart |
| 2:32 PM | Finger Lakes | R6 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #5 D C Boy's Counter-move (§16): #9 Speightful Sam | 3/1
9/2 | OUT
SHOW | Official chart |
| 2:35 PM | Mahoning Valley | R6 | If the pace stays honest (55%): #5 Simply Valid ★ If the pace is controlled (45%): #2 Sundaeswithsandy | 5/1
5/2 | PLACE
OUT | Official chart |
| 2:47 PM | Parx | R7 | If the pace stays honest (55%): #7 Dewey Doit If the pace is controlled (45%): #3 Mila Rose ★ | 2/1
7/2 | SHOW
OUT | Official chart |
| 4:47 PM | Zia Park | R7 | If the pace stays honest (60%): #2 McDude If the pace stays honest (60%): #2 McDude | 9/5
9/5 | OUT
OUT | Official chart |
| 3:01 PM | Finger Lakes | R7 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #3 Camm' Duke | 3/1 | OUT | Official chart |
| 5:14 PM | Zia Park | R8 | If the pace stays honest (60%): #3 Clever Clover | 6/5 | PLACE | Official chart |
| 3:30 PM | Finger Lakes | R8 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #7 Bustin Away | 2/1 | PLACE | Official chart |
| 3:30 PM | Horseshoe Indianapolis | R5 | If the pace stays honest (60%): #4 Fancy Fairlane | 6/5 | WIN $5.00 | Official chart |
| 3:31 PM | Mahoning Valley | R8 | If the pace stays honest (55%): #8 Run Bobby Run If the pace is controlled (45%): #1 Sound City ★ | 3/1
7/2 | PLACE
OUT | Official chart |
| 3:41 PM | Parx | R9 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #7 Action Hero | 5/2 | OUT | Official chart |
| 5:41 PM | Zia Park | R9 | If the pace stays honest (60%): #2 Millbo Baggins | 9/5 | SHOW | Official chart |
| 5:00 PM | Horseshoe Indianapolis | R8 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #9 Master Munnings | 7/2 | OUT | Official chart |
| 5:30 PM | Horseshoe Indianapolis | R9 | If the pace stays honest (60%): #2 Sir Gallivant | 5/2 | WIN $3.20 | Official chart |
| 7:50 PM | Mountaineer | R3 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #9 Early Delivery | 3/1 | WIN $6.60 | Official chart |
| 8:15 PM | Mountaineer | R4 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #4 Hunts Promise | 2/1 | SHOW | Official chart |
| 8:40 PM | Mountaineer | R5 | If the pace stays honest (55%): #2 Erlan ★ If the pace is controlled (45%): #3 Major Contender | 3/1
2/1 | PLACE
OUT | Official chart |
| 9:05 PM | Mountaineer | R6 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #3 Determined Love | 2/1 | PLACE | Official chart |
| 9:30 PM | Mountaineer | R7 | If the pace stays honest (60%): #4 Khozan's Valentine | 2/1 | WIN $4.80 | Official chart |
The railbird line
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