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The Tip Sheet — Results

Every pick from the day's selections sheet, settled against the official results.
Wednesday, November 11, 2026 · 57 picks · All times ET
Page built November 12, 2026 · 12:46 AM ET — if this stamp looks old, refresh the page.
54
PICK LEGS SETTLED
17
WINNERS
17-16-9
WIN-PLACE-SHOW
$108
$2 WIN BETS
$97.52
RETURNED
-9.7%
WIN ROI
+1.3%
PLACE ROI
-2.0%
SHOW ROI
Place bets: 54 settled · $108 place bets → $109.44 · ROI +1.3%
Show bets: 54 settled · $108 show bets → $105.88 · ROI -2.0% — 3 in-the-money leg(s) had no show price in the official chart and count $0.
Consensus sheet races: 42 settled · 13 winners · W-P-S 13-13-8 · $84 win bets → $80.58 · WIN ROI -4.1% · PLACE ROI +5.8% · SHOW ROI +3.0% — the picks from the 41 races printed on the day's Consensus Sheet, scored separately; a subset of the scorecard above, not added to it.
Races settled: 47 of 47 — the two scenario picks still file, but the math settles ONE $2 win pick per race: the official pick. From the 2026-11-01 card the official pick is chosen by the margin rule (protocol v3.8 §23): of the two scenario horses, the one that stands clearest of the field on its own pace graph — slot 1 unless that margin puts the official pick on the second scenario's horse (earlier days filed no margin choice and settle on slot 1). If the official pick is scratched, the other scenario's pick is the first backup, then the official pick's filed alternate, then the other scenario's alternate (single-pick accounting, Douglas 2026-11-01; margin rule v3.8).
37 race(s) filed one pick only — the second scenario fell below the likelihood floor (v2.2); that pick is the official pick and its filed alternate is its backup.
Official picks: 47 settled · 15 winners · $94 win bets → $85.92 · ROI -8.6%
Backup chain: 1 official pick(s) were scratched and settled on the first backup that ran; 0 race(s) had every horse in the chain scratched and count no leg.
Winner was the official pick: 15 of 47 races.
Counter-move legs (v2.9 §16): 7 settled · 2 winners · $14 win bets → $11.60 · ROI -17.1% — counted in the scorecard above.
In the money: 42 of 54 pick legs (78%) finished 1st, 2nd or 3rd.
The 17 winners paid an average of $5.74 on a $2 win ticket.
Across the board: $2 win-place-show on every pick — $278 → $275.44 · ROI -0.9%. (2 pool stake(s) refunded — the chart printed no price for that pool.)
Scratches: 1 official pick(s) were scratched in the official chart. Those legs settle on the first backup in the chain that actually ran — the other scenario's pick first, then the official pick's filed alternate, then the other scenario's alternate — and the scorecard above counts them.
As filed (before scratches): 53 settled · 17 winners · $106 win bets → $97.52 · ROI -8.0%
★ BEST BET OF THE DAY
9:21 PM ET · Charles Town · Race 6
6½ Furlongs · Dirt · Mdn 32.9k
IF THE PACE STAYS HONEST (55%)
#5 Revealing 7/5WIN
Trainer: Flint W Stites · Jockey: J. D Acosta
Revealing is the morning-line favorite with a named sheet edge — a clear-margin blended late-graph lead of 40 (late 89, profile (d)); also (a) leads both graphs in this 6½ Furlongs Dirt race (Mdn 32.9k).
The price: 7/5 favorite over the 5/1 second choice — the line's top choice, with the sheet edge named in the why as its confirmation.
IF THE PACE IS CONTROLLED (45%)
#5 Revealing 7/5WIN
Trainer: Flint W Stites · Jockey: J. D Acosta
Revealing holds a named sheet edge — (a) leads both graphs (early 100, late 89), with a clear-margin blended late-graph lead of 40 (profile (d)); promoted from this slot’s filed backup after Voodoo scratched; under the second scenario the race is decided by that finish.
The price: 7/5 favorite — promoted from the filed backup on the scratch of the 5/2 Voodoo; the sheet edge named in the why is its confirmation.
Official chart
NEXT BEST
2:32 PM ET · Finger Lakes · Race 6
1 Mile · Dirt · Mdn 32.6k
IF THE PACE STAYS HONEST (55%)
#7 All About Soul 5/2WIN
Trainer: M. Anthony Ferraro · Jockey: Keiber J Coa
All About Soul is the morning-line favorite with a named sheet edge — (e) draw edge from post 7 (index 1.419) (late 81, early 66) in this 1 Mile Dirt race (Mdn 32.6k).
The price: 5/2 favorite over the 3/1 second choice — the line's top choice, with the sheet edge named in the why as its confirmation.
IF THE PACE STAYS HONEST (55%)
#7 All About Soul 5/2WIN
Trainer: M. Anthony Ferraro · Jockey: Keiber J Coa
Official under the §26 consensus confirmation (v3.17): the filed official, Follow the Prints (7/2), totals 9 consensus points; All About Soul (5/2) totals 14 and heads the morning-line top four — the five factors (morning line, weight, speed, early pace, draw) do not confirm the filed pick even with its 5-point pick-column score, so the official pick is All About Soul. The displaced horse leaves the backup chain; the other scenario's horse is the first backup.
The price: 5/2 — the §26 consensus pick (consensus totals 14 to the filed official's 9); the filed case horse was Follow the Prints at 7/2
Official chart
FEATURED PLAY
3:01 PM ET · Finger Lakes · Race 7
6 Furlongs · Dirt · OC 10000n2x
IF THE PACE STAYS HONEST (55%)
#5 A Maize Zing Dotie 3/1WIN
Trainer: Chris J Englehart · Jockey: Andre S Worrie
A Maize Zing Dotie is the morning-line favorite with a named sheet edge — the blend's top probability (0.21) and a top early figure (early 86, late 79) in this 6 Furlongs Dirt race (OC 10000n2x).
The price: 3/1 favorite — no non-favorite in the field qualified under the slot-1 deviation gate (blend margin plus a profile edge), so the favorite files under that fallback; the short price carries no hard-edge claim beyond its blend-top position.
IF THE PACE IS CONTROLLED (45%)
#8 Ekwanok ★ 7/2OUT
Trainer: Jonathan B Buckley · Jockey: Kevin Navarro
Won by #5 A Maize Zing Dotie — paid $12.70
Ekwanok holds a named sheet edge — (e) draw edge from post 8 (index 1.236) (late 66, early 44); under the second scenario the race is decided by that finish.
The price: 7/2 — priced behind the 3/1 favorite, and the sheet edge named in the why is its confirmation.
Official chart
The Cheat Sheet — Settled
POSTTRACKRACESELECTIONMLRESULTCHART
12:05 PMParxR1
If the pace stays honest (55%): #1 Sheza Bernardini ★
If the pace is controlled (45%): #2 Perugia
Official chart
3/1
2/1		WIN $5.80
OUT		Official chart
12:10 PMFinger LakesR1
If the pace stays honest (60%): #5 Celeslia
Official chart
5/2PLACEOfficial chart
12:15 PMMahoning ValleyR1
If the pace stays honest (60%): #1 Driven for Success
Official chart
8/5WIN $4.20Official chart
12:32 PMParxR2
If the pace stays honest (60%): #2 Housebuster Dude
Official chart
8/5WIN $2.40Official chart
12:59 PMParxR3
If the pace stays honest (60%): #6 Vorstin
Official chart
2/1OUTOfficial chart
1:00 PMChurchill Downs HOTR1
If the pace is controlled (65%): #7 Don't Say It
Official chart
9/5PLACEOfficial chart
1:06 PMFinger LakesR3
If the pace stays honest (60%): #1 Cloudy Chance
Official chart
2/1OUTOfficial chart
1:11 PMMahoning ValleyR3
If the pace stays honest (60%): #5 Golden Two Step
Official chart
5/2WIN $6.00Official chart
1:26 PMParxR4
If the pace stays honest (60%): #5 Flamenca
Counter-move (§16): #2 Peephole
Official chart
3/1
4/1		SHOW
WIN $3.60		Official chart
1:29 PMChurchill DownsR2
If the pace is controlled (60%): #4 Salty Viking
Official chart
8/5SHOWOfficial chart
1:30 PMHorseshoe IndianapolisR1
If the pace stays honest (60%): #1 True Essence
Official chart
5/2OUTOfficial chart
1:53 PMParxR5
If the pace stays honest (60%): #2 Duke of Suggins
Official chart
2/1PLACEOfficial chart
1:58 PMChurchill DownsR3
If the pace stays honest (60%): #6 Onthestage
Official chart
8/5OUTOfficial chart
2:07 PMMahoning ValleyR5
If the pace stays honest (60%): #3 Blue Tail Fly
Official chart
5/2WIN $6.40Official chart
2:20 PMParxR6
If the pace stays honest (55%): #8 Honor Our Country
If the pace is controlled (45%): #6 Dean of Belonging ★
Official chart
3/1
7/2		WIN $4.20
OUT		Official chart
2:27 PMChurchill DownsR4
If the pace is controlled (60%): #6 Belzoni
Official chart
7/5WIN $2.80Official chart
2:32 PMFinger LakesR6
If the pace stays honest (55%): #7 All About Soul
If the pace stays honest (55%): #7 All About Soul
Official chart
5/2
5/2		WIN
WIN $5.28		Official chart
2:35 PMMahoning ValleyR6
If the pace stays honest (55%): #6 Hardway Mike ★
If the pace is controlled (45%): #1 It's All Mischief ★
Counter-move (§16): #6 Hardway Mike
Official chart
3/1
5/2
3/1		PLACE
PEND
PLACE		Official chart
3:01 PMFinger LakesR7
If the pace stays honest (55%): #5 A Maize Zing Dotie
If the pace is controlled (45%): #8 Ekwanok ★
Official chart
3/1
7/2		WIN $12.70
OUT		Official chart
3:03 PMMahoning ValleyR7
If the pace stays honest (60%): #7 Wauhatchie
Official chart
5/2WIN $6.20Official chart
3:14 PMParxR8
If the pace stays honest (60%): #6 Concord Bridge
Counter-move (§16): #5 Beach Colt
Official chart
2/1
3/1		PLACE
SHOW		Official chart
3:26 PMChurchill DownsR6
If the pace stays honest (60%): #4 Love Knicks Hart ★
Official chart
7/2PLACEOfficial chart
3:30 PMFinger LakesR8
If the pace stays honest (60%): #6 Itwillbefun
Counter-move (§16): #7 Signifying Nothing
Official chart
2/1
5/2		PLACE
OUT		Official chart
3:41 PMParxR9
If the pace stays honest (55%): #7 Halftime Show
If the pace stays honest (55%): #7 Halftime Show
Official chart
5/2
5/2		OUT
OUT		Official chart
3:55 PMChurchill DownsR7
If the pace stays honest (60%): #12 Cybersteel
Official chart
9/5PLACEOfficial chart
4:10 PMHorseshoe IndianapolisR6
If the pace stays honest (60%): #6 Victory On Ice
Counter-move (§16): #4 Bignetti
Official chart
2/1
9/2		OUT
OUT		Official chart
5:40 PMDelta DownsR1
If the pace is controlled (60%): #7 Severus Squall
Official chart
5/2PLACEOfficial chart
4:55 PMChurchill DownsR9
If the pace stays honest (60%): #10 Double Arrow ★
Official chart
4/1WIN $9.14Official chart
6:08 PMDelta DownsR2
If the pace stays honest (60%): #6 Wannabeeloved
Official chart
9/5PLACEOfficial chart
5:13 PMHorseshoe IndianapolisR8
If the pace stays honest (60%): #3 Hot Middles
Official chart
3/1WIN $5.20Official chart
6:36 PMDelta DownsR3
If the pace is controlled (60%): #5 Princess Peach
Counter-move (§16): #7 Married for Money
Official chart
5/2
7/2		PLACE
WIN $8.00		Official chart
5:45 PMPenn NationalR1
If the pace stays honest (60%): #5 Mysterioso
Official chart
2/1WIN $2.80Official chart
5:48 PMHorseshoe IndianapolisR9
If the pace stays honest (60%): #4 Tiva
Official chart
9/5PLACEOfficial chart
6:14 PMPenn NationalR2
If the pace stays honest (60%): #1 Beau Hill
Official chart
9/5SHOWOfficial chart
7:32 PMDelta DownsR5
If the pace stays honest (60%): #6 Olympiad's Choice
Official chart
5/2OUTOfficial chart
7:12 PMPenn NationalR4
If the pace stays honest (60%): #5 Music Clarifcation (promoted — filed pick #3 Gwen to Win scratched)
Counter-move (§16): #2 Tipmanee
Official chart
9/2
7/2		SHOW
PLACE		Official chart
8:26 PMRemington ParkR3
If the pace stays honest (60%): #5 Kelce
Official chart
2/1SHOWOfficial chart
7:30 PMCharles TownR2
If the pace stays honest (60%): #4 Far Out West ★
Official chart
4/1OUTOfficial chart
7:41 PMPenn NationalR5
If the pace stays honest (60%): #2 Pozo ★
Official chart
5/2OUTOfficial chart
7:50 PMMountaineerR3
If the pace is controlled (55%): #8 French Onion
If the pace stays honest (45%): #1 Remys Gunsmoke ★
Official chart
7/2
7/1		PLACE
SHOW		Official chart
7:57 PMCharles TownR3
If the pace is controlled (60%): #6 Saucy Boss
Official chart
1/1OUTOfficial chart
8:15 PMMountaineerR4
If the pace stays honest (55%): #3 Mr Negativity ★
If the pace is controlled (45%): #10 Gottagetitback
Official chart
3/1
2/1		PLACE
SHOW		Official chart
8:53 PMCharles TownR5
If the pace stays honest (60%): #6 Amama
Official chart
8/5SHOWOfficial chart
10:18 PMRemington ParkR7
If the pace stays honest (60%): #7 Drill Baby ★
Official chart
3/1PLACEOfficial chart
9:21 PMCharles TownR6
If the pace stays honest (55%): #5 Revealing
If the pace is controlled (45%): #5 Revealing
Official chart
7/5
7/5		WIN $2.20
WIN		Official chart
9:30 PMMountaineerR7
If the pace stays honest (55%): #5 Wishful Thoughts
If the pace stays honest (55%): #5 Wishful Thoughts
Official chart
2/1
2/1		SHOW
SHOW		Official chart
9:55 PMMountaineerR8
If the pace stays honest (60%): #11 Averyz Day ★
Official chart
5/2WIN $10.60Official chart
★ = the pick was not the morning-line favorite.
The HOT badge marks the race shape our settled record wins most — controlled pace on top, a clear late-graph leader, no synthetic surface.
PEND — the pick was scratched in the official chart and no filed backup ran, so the play is a refund. It is not a result still missing.
When a pick is scratched and a filed backup ran, the leg settles on that backup — the pick that would have been filed had the scratches been known — and counts in the scorecard.
Counter-move legs (v2.9 §16) are extra $2 win legs filed in races with no strong favorite; they count in the scorecard and carry no scratch backup — a scratched counter leg is a refund.
Pace-price legs (v3.0 §19) are the race's headline pace pick at 2/1–7/2; standalone legs count in the scorecard and carry no scratch backup — a scratched pace-price leg is a refund. A PACE-PRICE tag on a pair or counter leg marks the same horse and is reported as a memo line only, never counted twice.
Payouts are the official $2 payoffs. Full race-by-race results with WIN/PLACE/SHOW banners: see the Results Archive.
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