THOROUGHWIZ
The Tip Sheet — Results
Every pick from the day's selections sheet, settled against the official results.
Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · 38 picks · All times ET
Page built November 4, 2026 · 8:03 PM ET — if this stamp looks old, refresh the page.
Place bets: 33 settled · $66 place bets → $40.66 · ROI -38.4%
Show bets: 33 settled · $66 show bets → $51.74 · ROI -21.6%
Consensus sheet races: 30 settled · 7 winners · W-P-S 7-5-6 · $60 win bets → $35.56 · WIN ROI -40.7% · PLACE ROI -40.0% · SHOW ROI -26.6% — the picks from the 39 races printed on the day's Consensus Sheet, scored separately; a subset of the scorecard above, not added to it.
Races settled: 30 of 37 — the two scenario picks still file, but the math settles ONE $2 win pick per race: the official pick. From the 2026-11-01 card the official pick is chosen by the margin rule (protocol v3.8 §23): of the two scenario horses, the one that stands clearest of the field on its own pace graph — slot 1 unless that margin puts the official pick on the second scenario's horse (earlier days filed no margin choice and settle on slot 1). If the official pick is scratched, the other scenario's pick is the first backup, then the official pick's filed alternate, then the other scenario's alternate (single-pick accounting, Douglas 2026-11-01; margin rule v3.8).
36 race(s) filed one pick only — the second scenario fell below the likelihood floor (v2.2); that pick is the official pick and its filed alternate is its backup.
Official picks: 30 settled · 8 winners · $60 win bets → $42.88 · ROI -28.5%
Backup chain: 3 official pick(s) were scratched and settled on the first backup that ran; 0 race(s) had every horse in the chain scratched and count no leg.
Winner was the official pick: 8 of 30 races.
Counter-move legs (v2.9 §16): 3 settled · 0 winners · $6 win bets → $0.00 · ROI -100.0% — counted in the scorecard above.
In the money: 20 of 33 pick legs (61%) finished 1st, 2nd or 3rd.
The 8 winners paid an average of $5.36 on a $2 win ticket.
Across the board: $2 win-place-show on every pick — $180 → $128.74 · ROI -28.5%.
Scratches: 3 official pick(s) were scratched in the official chart. Those legs settle on the first backup in the chain that actually ran — the other scenario's pick first, then the official pick's filed alternate, then the other scenario's alternate — and the scorecard above counts them.
As filed (before scratches): 30 settled · 7 winners · $60 win bets → $33.48 · ROI -44.2%
★ BEST BET OF THE DAY
1:06 PM ET · Finger Lakes · Race 3 HOT
1 Mile · Dirt · Allowance 26500n2L
IF THE PACE IS CONTROLLED (70%)
#2 Purpose 2/13RD · SHOW
Trainer: H. James Bond · Jockey: Reylu Gutierrez
Showed — paid $2.22 to show ($2). Won by #3 Rose Lisa
Purpose is the morning-line favorite with a named sheet edge — the field's best raw late figure (#1); a clear-margin blended late-graph lead of 23 points; alone in front he controls the fractions.
The price: 2/1 favorite over the 3/1 second choice — the line makes him the one to beat and the sheet backs it with the field's best raw late figure (#1)
NEXT BEST
2:27 PM ET · Churchill Downs · Race 4
7 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance 50000s
IF THE PACE STAYS HONEST (70%)
#4 Belle Ofthe Dance 2/1WIN
Trainer: Carlos Santamaria · Jockey: Jaime A Torres
Paid $6.24 to win ($2)
Belle Ofthe Dance is the morning-line favorite with a named sheet edge — the field's best raw late figure (#1); a clear-margin blended late-graph lead of 36 points; the pace here is pressured but holds together, and his finish tells late.
The price: 2/1 favorite over the 5/2 second choice — the line makes him the one to beat and the sheet backs it with the field's best raw late figure (#1)
COUNTER-MOVE (V2.9 §16)
#6 Winning Matters 7/22ND · PLACE
Placed — paid $3.84 to place ($2). Won by #4 Belle Ofthe Dance
the counter-move formula's top non-favorite, at 121 lb on our weight scale; finished 3/12 last out
FEATURED PLAY
12:10 PM ET · Finger Lakes · Race 1
1m70yds · Dirt · Allowance 26500n2L
IF THE PACE IS CONTROLLED (70%)
#3 Start the Day 5/2WIN
Trainer: Paul W Barrow · Jockey: Jeremias Flores
Paid $4.76 to win ($2)
Start the Day is the morning-line favorite with a named sheet edge — top-two in both graphs while holding the late-graph lead (blended late 88); alone in front he controls the fractions.
The price: 5/2 favorite over the 4/1 second choice — the line makes him the one to beat and the sheet backs it with top-two in both graphs while holding the late-graph lead (blended late 88)
The Cheat Sheet — Settled
| POST | TRACK | RACE | SELECTION | ML | RESULT | CHART |
|---|
| 12:10 PM | Finger Lakes | R1 | If the pace is controlled (70%): #3 Start the Day | 5/2 | WIN $4.76 | Official chart |
| 12:38 PM | Finger Lakes | R2 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #2 Doc Advantage | 9/5 | WIN $3.96 | Official chart |
| 12:43 PM | Mahoning Valley | R2 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #5 Hot Ice | 5/2 | WIN $3.40 | Official chart |
| 1:00 PM | Churchill Downs | R1 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #3 Divine Truth | 9/5 | OUT | Official chart |
| 1:06 PM | Finger Lakes HOT | R3 | If the pace is controlled (70%): #2 Purpose | 2/1 | SHOW | Official chart |
| 1:29 PM | Churchill Downs | R2 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #5 Thea | 9/5 | SHOW | Official chart |
| 1:39 PM | Mahoning Valley | R4 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #2 Holiday Musical | 3/1 | OUT | Official chart |
| 1:53 PM | Parx | R5 | If the lone speed gets loose (70%): #7 Never Sway | 5/2 | WIN $3.20 | Official chart |
| 1:58 PM | Churchill Downs | R3 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #1 Southern Whisper Counter-move (§16): #3 Lifes Reward | 5/2
6/1 | OUT
OUT | Official chart |
| 2:20 PM | Parx HOT | R6 | If the pace is controlled (70%): #5 Just Another Ten | 3/1 | PLACE | Official chart |
| 2:27 PM | Churchill Downs | R4 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #4 Belle Ofthe Dance Counter-move (§16): #6 Winning Matters | 2/1
7/2 | WIN $6.24
PLACE | Official chart |
| 2:36 PM | Horseshoe Indianapolis | R3 | If the pace collapses (70%): #7 Purdy Darn Good | 3/1 | OUT | Official chart |
| 2:47 PM | Parx | R7 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #5 Lasso ★ | 3/1 | OUT | Official chart |
| 2:57 PM | Churchill Downs | R5 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #12 Jackie's Player | 3/1 | WIN $7.32 | Official chart |
| 3:01 PM | Finger Lakes | R7 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #8 Lady Serenity | 3/1 | OUT | Official chart |
| 3:03 PM | Mahoning Valley | R7 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #4 Tipsy Tulip | 5/2 | OUT | Official chart |
| 3:14 PM | Parx | R8 | If the pace is controlled (70%): #2 Ready as Ever | 7/2 | PLACE | Official chart |
| 3:26 PM | Churchill Downs | R6 | If the pace is controlled (70%): #6 Lithos | 3/1 | OUT | Official chart |
| 3:30 PM | Finger Lakes | R8 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #7 King's Leap (promoted — filed pick #3 Eldest Son scratched) | 3/1 | PLACE | Official chart |
| 3:41 PM | Parx | R9 | If the pace is controlled (70%): #1 Bourbon Aficionado Counter-move (§16): #8 Home Invasion | 7/2
4/1 | PLACE
OUT | Official chart |
| 4:10 PM | Horseshoe Indianapolis | R6 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #7 Campaign Promises | 2/1 | WIN $4.60 | Official chart |
| 4:25 PM | Churchill Downs | R8 | If the lone speed gets loose (70%): #3 Freaks Go | 6/5 | SHOW | Official chart |
| 4:55 PM | Churchill Downs | R9 | If the pace stays honest (60%): #4 Clairita If the pace stays honest (60%): #4 Clairita | 5/2
5/2 | OUT
OUT | Official chart |
| 6:08 PM | Delta Downs | R2 | If the lone speed gets loose (70%): #10 Take This City ★ | 9/2 | SHOW | Official chart |
| 5:15 PM | Horseshoe Indianapolis | R8 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #6 Munny Town | 5/2 | SHOW | Official chart |
| 5:24 PM | Churchill Downs | R10 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #3 Hickory (promoted — filed pick #4 Belzoni scratched) | 6/1 | SHOW | Official chart |
| 6:14 PM | Penn National | R2 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #4 Tortuga Island | 2/1 | SHOW | Official chart |
| 7:32 PM | Delta Downs | R5 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #5 Vodka Martini (promoted — filed pick #2 Grazed scratched) | 5/1 | WIN $9.40 | Official chart |
| 7:00 PM | Charles Town | R1 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #4 Hill Country | 1/1 | OUT | Official chart |
| 7:12 PM | Penn National | R4 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #2 Trophy Room | 2/1 | OUT | Official chart |
| 7:41 PM | Penn National | R5 | If the lone speed gets loose (70%): #6 Mysonsgoinpro | 2/1 | PEND | |
| 7:50 PM | Mountaineer | R3 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #8 Unworkable | 2/1 | PEND | |
| 8:10 PM | Penn National HOT | R6 | If the pace is controlled (70%): #1 Aquitania Arrival ★ | 4/1 | PEND | |
| 9:22 PM | Remington Park | R5 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #2 Lil Town Sis | 3/1 | PEND | |
| 8:25 PM | Charles Town | R4 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #8 Genuine Gomo | 7/5 | PEND | |
| 8:39 PM | Penn National | R7 | If the pace collapses (70%): #6 Wink of an Eye Counter-move (§16): #5 Always Angels | 3/1
4/1 | PEND
PEND | |
| 8:53 PM | Charles Town | R5 | If the pace stays honest (70%): #8 Petra Columba ★ | 4/1 | PEND | |