THOROUGHWIZ
The Tip Sheet — Results
Every pick from the day's selections sheet, settled against the official results.
Thursday, November 12, 2026 · 44 picks · All times ET
Page built November 12, 2026 · 8:15 PM ET — if this stamp looks old, refresh the page.
Place bets: 27 settled · $54 place bets → $45.36 · ROI -16.0%
Show bets: 27 settled · $54 show bets → $43.92 · ROI -18.7% — 2 in-the-money leg(s) had no show price in the official chart and count $0.
Consensus sheet races: 20 settled · 10 winners · W-P-S 10-3-3 · $40 win bets → $46.12 · WIN ROI +15.3% · PLACE ROI -5.5% · SHOW ROI -12.0% — the picks from the 32 races printed on the day's Consensus Sheet, scored separately; a subset of the scorecard above, not added to it.
Races settled: 26 of 35 — the two scenario picks still file, but the math settles ONE $2 win pick per race: the official pick. From the 2026-11-01 card the official pick is chosen by the margin rule (protocol v3.8 §23): of the two scenario horses, the one that stands clearest of the field on its own pace graph — slot 1 unless that margin puts the official pick on the second scenario's horse (earlier days filed no margin choice and settle on slot 1). If the official pick is scratched, the other scenario's pick is the first backup, then the official pick's filed alternate, then the other scenario's alternate (single-pick accounting, Douglas 2026-11-01; margin rule v3.8).
26 race(s) filed one pick only — the second scenario fell below the likelihood floor (v2.2); that pick is the official pick and its filed alternate is its backup.
Official picks: 26 settled · 13 winners · $52 win bets → $56.90 · ROI +9.4%
Winner was the official pick: 13 of 26 races.
Counter-move legs (v2.9 §16): 1 settled · 0 winners · $2 win bets → $0.00 · ROI -100.0% — counted in the scorecard above.
In the money: 20 of 27 pick legs (74%) finished 1st, 2nd or 3rd.
The 13 winners paid an average of $4.38 on a $2 win ticket.
Across the board: $2 win-place-show on every pick — $152 → $146.18 · ROI -3.8%. (2 pool stake(s) refunded — the chart printed no price for that pool.)
As filed (before scratches): 27 settled · 13 winners · $54 win bets → $56.90 · ROI +5.4%
★ BEST BET OF THE DAY
1:00 PM ET · Churchill Downs · Race 1
6 Furlongs · Dirt · Mdn 120k
IF THE PACE STAYS HONEST (60%)
#4 Oscar's Candy ★ 3/1OUT
Trainer: Donnie K Von Hemel · Jockey: Miguel Fernandez
Won by #5 I Like to Party — paid $3.06
Oscar's Candy holds a named sheet edge — (c) late_proj >= 90 (late 78, early 76) in this 6 Furlongs Dirt race (Mdn 120k); the favorite was passed where the sheet does not confirm it.
The price: 3/1 against the 8/5 favorite I Like to Party — the favorite was passed for lacking a confirmed named edge under the standing rules, and the sheet edge sits with this horse.
IF THE PACE IS CONTROLLED (40%)
#2 With You ★ 5/2OUT
Trainer: Eddie Kenneally · Jockey: Jose L Ortiz
Won by #5 I Like to Party — paid $3.06
With You holds a named sheet edge — the blended late-graph lead (late 61) with a top-2 raw late figure (late 61, early 94); under the second scenario the race is decided by that finish.
The price: 5/2 — priced behind the 8/5 favorite, and the sheet edge named in the why is its confirmation.
NEXT BEST
7:57 PM ET · Charles Town · Race 3
7 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming 5000n3x
IF THE PACE STAYS HONEST (55%)
#5 Dark Fury 6/5RESULT PENDING
Trainer: Jeffrey D Allen · Jockey: Arnaldo Bocachica
Dark Fury is the morning-line favorite with a named sheet edge — a clear-margin blended late-graph lead of 37 (late 94, profile (d)) in this 7 Furlongs Dirt race (Claiming 5000n3x).
The price: 6/5 favorite — no non-favorite in the field qualified under the slot-1 deviation gate (blend margin plus a profile edge), so the favorite files under that fallback; the short price carries no hard-edge claim beyond its blend-top position.
IF THE PACE STAYS HONEST (55%)
#5 Dark Fury 6/5RESULT PENDING
Trainer: Jeffrey D Allen · Jockey: Arnaldo Bocachica
Official under the §26 consensus confirmation (v3.17): the filed official, Starship Refund (7/2), totals 14 consensus points; Dark Fury (6/5) totals 18 and heads the morning-line top four — the five factors (morning line, weight, speed, early pace, draw) do not confirm the filed pick even with its 5-point pick-column score, so the official pick is Dark Fury. The displaced horse leaves the backup chain; the other scenario's horse is the first backup.
The price: 6/5 — the §26 consensus pick (consensus totals 18 to the filed official's 14); the filed case horse was Starship Refund at 7/2
FEATURED PLAY
5:41 PM ET · Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 9
1 Mile · Dirt · Mdn 36k
IF THE PACE STAYS HONEST (60%)
#10 Alloutjustice 9/23RD · SHOW
Trainer: Raymond J Paquette III · Jockey: Joseph M Romero
Showed — paid $4.00 to show ($2). Won by #1 Crema Agria
Alloutjustice holds a named sheet edge — (d) the clear-margin blended late-graph lead (late 62, 20 clear of the next survivor) in this 1 Mile Dirt race (Mdn 36k); on the field reshaped by this morning's scratches he is the survivors' morning-line favorite and the blend's top horse (0.32), and the only survivor priced at 8/1 or under.
The price: 9/2 — the shortest price among the survivors and the blend's top horse on the reshaped field (0.32), with the clear-margin late lead named in the why as its confirmation.
IF THE PACE IS CONTROLLED (40%)
#10 Alloutjustice 9/23RD · SHOW
Trainer: Raymond J Paquette III · Jockey: Joseph M Romero
Showed — paid $4.00 to show ($2). Won by #1 Crema Agria
Alloutjustice holds a named sheet edge — (d) the clear-margin blended late-graph lead (late 62, 20 clear of the next survivor); under the second scenario the race is decided by that finish, and at 9/2 he files in this slot only because that clear-margin lead (20, at least 15) pairs with the profile edge named here.
The price: 9/2 — priced as the survivors' favorite on the reshaped field; the sheet edge named in the why is its confirmation.
The Cheat Sheet — Settled
| POST | TRACK | RACE | SELECTION | ML | RESULT | CHART |
|---|
| 12:15 PM | Mahoning Valley | R1 | If the pace stays honest (60%): #4 Gray Day | 7/5 | WIN $3.40 | Official chart |
| 12:32 PM | Parx | R2 | If the pace is controlled (65%): #3 Prince Colton | 2/1 | PLACE | Official chart |
| 12:59 PM | Parx | R3 | If the pace stays honest (60%): #3 Vance Scholars | 5/2 | WIN $6.60 | Official chart |
| 1:00 PM | Churchill Downs | R1 | If the pace stays honest (60%): #4 Oscar's Candy ★ If the pace is controlled (40%): #2 With You ★ | 3/1
5/2 | OUT
OUT | Official chart |
| 1:10 PM | Belmont Park | R2 | If the pace stays honest (60%): #8 Tap Rules | 9/5 | SHOW | Official chart |
| 1:11 PM | Mahoning Valley | R3 | If the pace is controlled (65%): #1 Nacua If the pace stays honest (35%): #2 Golden Hurricane ★ | 7/5
3/1 | WIN $5.20
SHOW | Official chart |
| 1:29 PM | Churchill Downs | R2 | If the pace stays honest (60%): #5 Oraia | 7/5 | WIN $3.76 | Official chart |
| 2:02 PM | Horseshoe Indianapolis | R2 | If the pace stays honest (60%): #2 Sharons Angels | 9/5 | OUT | Official chart |
| 2:07 PM | Mahoning Valley | R5 | If the pace stays honest (60%): #7 Sweet Kylie | 4/5 | WIN $2.60 | Official chart |
| 2:20 PM | Parx | R6 | If the pace stays honest (60%): #1 Dreaming of Gerry | 3/1 | SHOW | Official chart |
| 2:27 PM | Churchill Downs | R4 | If the pace stays honest (60%): #3 Shared Vision | 6/5 | WIN $3.16 | Official chart |
| 2:35 PM | Mahoning Valley | R6 | If the pace stays honest (55%): #4 Little Shance If the pace is controlled (45%): #6 Gone Wild ★ | 2/1
7/2 | PLACE
OUT | Official chart |
| 2:57 PM | Churchill Downs | R5 | If the pace stays honest (60%): #6 Order Restored | 9/5 | WIN $4.18 | Official chart |
| 3:03 PM | Mahoning Valley | R7 | If the pace stays honest (60%): #2 Carnival Rock Counter-move (§16): #7 Mitochondria | 2/1
3/1 | WIN $6.80
OUT | Official chart |
| 3:10 PM | Woodbine | R1 | If the pace stays honest (60%): #6 Glint Over Essa | 2/1 | OUT | Official chart |
| 3:12 PM | Belmont Park | R6 | If the pace stays honest (60%): #6 Ganderella | 9/5 | SHOW | Official chart |
| 3:14 PM | Parx | R8 | If the pace stays honest (60%): #5 Costa Amalfitana | 5/2 | PEND | Official chart |
| 3:31 PM | Mahoning Valley | R8 | If the pace stays honest (60%): #3 Water Into Wine | 1/1 | WIN $2.40 | Official chart |
| 4:14 PM | Belmont Park | R8 | If the pace stays honest (60%): #1 Sociably Johnny | 3/1 | OUT | Official chart |
| 5:40 PM | Delta Downs | R1 | If the pace stays honest (60%): #3 True Fire | 5/2 | WIN $4.00 | Official chart |
| 5:06 PM | Woodbine | R5 | If the pace stays honest (55%): #1 Shimmering Frost If the pace is controlled (45%): #4 Matoaka ★ | 2/1
7/2 | OUT
PLACE | Official chart |
| 5:41 PM | Horseshoe Indianapolis | R9 | If the pace stays honest (60%): #10 Alloutjustice If the pace is controlled (40%): #10 Alloutjustice | 9/2
9/2 | SHOW
SHOW | Official chart |
| 6:04 PM | Woodbine | R7 | If the pace stays honest (55%): #5 Named Firey If the pace is controlled (45%): #4 Mor Joe's Spirit ★ | 2/1
5/2 | OUT
OUT | Official chart |
| 7:04 PM | Delta Downs | R4 | If the pace stays honest (60%): #2 Luv to Win | 5/2 | WIN $5.20 | Official chart |
| 6:14 PM | Penn National | R2 | If the pace stays honest (60%): #5 Techstar | 5/2 | PLACE | Official chart |
| 6:33 PM | Woodbine | R8 | If the pace stays honest (60%): #9 Lemon Sweets ★ | 4/1 | PEND | |
| 7:12 PM | Penn National | R4 | If the pace stays honest (60%): #2 What Does It Take | 8/5 | WIN $3.80 | Official chart |
| 7:30 PM | Charles Town | R2 | If the pace stays honest (60%): #7 Ashley H ★ | 3/1 | PEND | |
| 7:41 PM | Penn National | R5 | If the pace stays honest (55%): #6 Maximus Meridius If the pace is controlled (45%): #4 Houghton Shuffle ★ | 5/2
7/2 | WIN $5.80
OUT | Official chart |
| 8:56 PM | Delta Downs | R8 | If the pace stays honest (60%): #10 Spicy Mustard | 3/1 | PEND | |
| 7:57 PM | Charles Town | R3 | If the pace stays honest (55%): #5 Dark Fury If the pace stays honest (55%): #5 Dark Fury | 6/5
6/5 | PEND
PEND | |
| 9:22 PM | Remington Park | R5 | If the pace stays honest (60%): #2 Storms Last | 5/2 | PEND | |
| 8:39 PM | Penn National | R7 | If the pace stays honest (60%): #1 Gentle Breeze Counter-move (§16): #7 Federal Exchange | 5/2
5/1 | PEND
PEND | |
| 10:18 PM | Remington Park | R7 | If the pace stays honest (55%): #6 Mi Amiga If the pace is controlled (45%): #4 Golly Holly ★ | 5/2
3/1 | PEND
PEND | |
| 9:21 PM | Charles Town | R6 | If the pace stays honest (60%): #7 Congrats On Fifty | 7/5 | PEND | |
The railbird line
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