THOROUGHWIZ

The Tip Sheet — Results

Every pick from the day's selections sheet, settled against the official results.

Saturday, November 14, 2026 · 49 picks · All times ET

Page built November 14, 2026 · 8:52 PM ET — if this stamp looks old, refresh the page.

PICK LEGS SETTLED

WINNERS

15-13-7

WIN-PLACE-SHOW

$104

$2 WIN BETS

$73.10

RETURNED

-29.7%

WIN ROI

-10.8%

PLACE ROI

-8.7%

SHOW ROI

Place bets: 52 settled · $104 place bets → $92.78 · ROI -10.8% — 1 in-the-money leg(s) had no place price in the official chart and count $0.

Show bets: 52 settled · $104 show bets → $95.00 · ROI -8.7% — 1 in-the-money leg(s) had no show price in the official chart and count $0.

Consensus sheet races: 42 settled · 12 winners · W-P-S 12-9-5 · $84 win bets → $58.86 · WIN ROI -29.9% · PLACE ROI -14.0% · SHOW ROI -12.3% — the picks from the 46 races printed on the day's Consensus Sheet, scored separately; a subset of the scorecard above, not added to it.

Races settled: 41 of 47 — the two scenario picks still file, but the math settles ONE $2 win pick per race: the official pick. From the 2026-11-01 card the official pick is chosen by the margin rule (protocol v3.8 §23): of the two scenario horses, the one that stands clearest of the field on its own pace graph — slot 1 unless that margin puts the official pick on the second scenario's horse (earlier days filed no margin choice and settle on slot 1). If the official pick is scratched, the other scenario's pick is the first backup, then the official pick's filed alternate, then the other scenario's alternate (single-pick accounting, Douglas 2026-11-01; margin rule v3.8).

45 race(s) filed one pick only — the second scenario fell below the likelihood floor (v2.2); that pick is the official pick and its filed alternate is its backup.

Official picks: 41 settled · 13 winners · $82 win bets → $58.30 · ROI -28.9%

Winner was the official pick: 13 of 41 races.

Counter-move legs (v2.9 §16): 11 settled · 2 winners · $22 win bets → $14.80 · ROI -32.7% — counted in the scorecard above.

In the money: 35 of 52 pick legs (67%) finished 1st, 2nd or 3rd.

The 15 winners paid an average of $4.87 on a $2 win ticket.

Across the board: $2 win-place-show on every pick — $242 → $222.98 · ROI -7.9%. (2 pool stake(s) refunded — the chart printed no price for that pool.)

As filed (before scratches): 52 settled · 15 winners · $104 win bets → $73.10 · ROI -29.7%

The Book, Broken Down

The official-pick book from the scorecard above — one $2 win leg per race — grouped four ways. The counter-move and pace-price legs keep their own lines above and are not in these tables, so each table sums to the Official picks line. Distance bands are read from the filed distance; class is read from the filed class string — maiden claiming and maiden optional claiming count as Maiden, optional claiming counts with Claiming.

Today — Saturday, November 14, 2026

By track

Track	Legs	Wins	Win %	$ Staked	$ Returned	ROI
CD — Churchill Downs	9	3	33.3%	$18	$14.16	-21.3%
GP — Gulfstream Park	9	3	33.3%	$18	$15.60	-13.3%
WO — Woodbine	6	0	0.0%	$12	$0.00	-100.0%
BEL — Belmont Park	5	3	60.0%	$10	$14.54	+45.4%
LRL — Laurel Park	5	1	20.0%	$10	$3.60	-64.0%
DED — Delta Downs	3	1	33.3%	$6	$4.00	-33.3%
DMR — Del Mar	3	1	33.3%	$6	$2.60	-56.7%
CT — Charles Town	1	1	100.0%	$2	$3.80	+90.0%
All races	41	13	31.7%	$82	$58.30	-28.9%

By surface

Surface	Legs	Wins	Win %	$ Staked	$ Returned	ROI
Dirt	27	9	33.3%	$54	$38.16	-29.3%
Turf	1	0	0.0%	$2	$0.00	-100.0%
Synthetic	13	4	30.8%	$26	$20.14	-22.5%
All races	41	13	31.7%	$82	$58.30	-28.9%

By distance

Distance	Legs	Wins	Win %	$ Staked	$ Returned	ROI
Sprint — 6.5f and under	21	8	38.1%	$42	$33.88	-19.3%
Mid — 7 to 7.5f	4	2	50.0%	$8	$8.08	+1.0%
Route — 8 to 8.5f	15	3	20.0%	$30	$16.34	-45.5%
Long — 9f and over	1	0	0.0%	$2	$0.00	-100.0%
All races	41	13	31.7%	$82	$58.30	-28.9%

By class

Class	Legs	Wins	Win %	$ Staked	$ Returned	ROI
Maiden	12	4	33.3%	$24	$19.24	-19.8%
Claiming	12	4	33.3%	$24	$20.08	-16.3%
Allowance	9	2	22.2%	$18	$8.38	-53.4%
Stakes	6	2	33.3%	$12	$6.80	-43.3%
Handicap	1	1	100.0%	$2	$3.80	+90.0%
Other	1	0	0.0%	$2	$0.00	-100.0%
All races	41	13	31.7%	$82	$58.30	-28.9%

Cumulative — 2026-10-31 to 2026-11-14 · 14 settled days on file

By track

Track	Legs	Wins	Win %	$ Staked	$ Returned	ROI
CD — Churchill Downs	63	23	36.5%	$126	$122.66	-2.7%
PRX — Parx	52	15	28.8%	$104	$65.80	-36.7%
GP — Gulfstream Park	43	13	30.2%	$86	$60.60	-29.5%
DED — Delta Downs	42	10	23.8%	$84	$51.00	-39.3%
IND — Horseshoe Indianapolis	40	11	27.5%	$80	$58.40	-27.0%
WO — Woodbine	40	7	17.5%	$80	$40.60	-49.2%
BEL — Belmont Park	39	12	30.8%	$78	$67.60	-13.3%
MVR — Mahoning Valley	36	13	36.1%	$72	$60.40	-16.1%
FL — Finger Lakes	35	13	37.1%	$70	$58.16	-16.9%
MNR — Mountaineer	28	7	25.0%	$56	$35.80	-36.1%
CT — Charles Town	27	9	33.3%	$54	$38.80	-28.1%
LRL — Laurel Park	24	7	29.2%	$48	$34.20	-28.7%
RP — Remington Park	22	10	45.5%	$44	$58.30	+32.5%
PEN — Penn National	21	6	28.6%	$42	$28.80	-31.4%
DMR — Del Mar	17	5	29.4%	$34	$24.80	-27.1%
ZIA — Zia Park	16	3	18.8%	$32	$13.30	-58.4%
KEE — Keeneland	11	6	54.5%	$22	$29.26	+33.0%
SA — Santa Anita	7	1	14.3%	$14	$5.00	-64.3%
CTD — Century Downs	5	1	20.0%	$10	$4.50	-55.0%
All races	568	172	30.3%	$1136	$857.98	-24.5%

By surface

Surface	Legs	Wins	Win %	$ Staked	$ Returned	ROI
Dirt	429	127	29.6%	$858	$619.04	-27.9%
Turf	58	25	43.1%	$116	$132.78	+14.5%
Synthetic	81	20	24.7%	$162	$106.16	-34.5%
All races	568	172	30.3%	$1136	$857.98	-24.5%

By distance

Distance	Legs	Wins	Win %	$ Staked	$ Returned	ROI
Sprint — 6.5f and under	321	93	29.0%	$642	$446.94	-30.4%
Mid — 7 to 7.5f	47	14	29.8%	$94	$69.40	-26.2%
Route — 8 to 8.5f	194	64	33.0%	$388	$338.06	-12.9%
Long — 9f and over	6	1	16.7%	$12	$3.58	-70.2%
All races	568	172	30.3%	$1136	$857.98	-24.5%

By class

Class	Legs	Wins	Win %	$ Staked	$ Returned	ROI
Maiden	139	49	35.3%	$278	$253.38	-8.9%
Claiming	268	69	25.7%	$536	$349.26	-34.8%
Allowance	108	39	36.1%	$216	$186.68	-13.6%
Stakes	48	13	27.1%	$96	$58.46	-39.1%
Handicap	3	2	66.7%	$6	$10.20	+70.0%
Other	2	0	0.0%	$4	$0.00	-100.0%
All races	568	172	30.3%	$1136	$857.98	-24.5%

★ BEST BET OF THE DAY

1:58 PM ET · Churchill Downs · Race 3 HOT

6 Furlongs · Dirt · DrmSprmeL300K

IF THE PACE IS CONTROLLED (55%)

#6 Justinqueso ★ 5/12ND · PLACE

Trainer: Ian R Wilkes · Jockey: Brian J Hernandez Jr.

Placed — paid $3.10 to place ($2). Won by #4 Echo Sound

Justinqueso holds a named sheet edge — (c) late_proj >= 90 — in this 6 Furlongs Dirt race (DrmSprmeL300K); running style E/P, late 67, early 24.

The price: 5/1 — priced behind the favorite behind the 9/5 favorite Echo Sound, and the sheet edge named in the why is its confirmation. The favorite was passed for lacking the required named/hard edge under the standing favorite discipline.

IF THE PACE STAYS HONEST (45%)

#4 Echo Sound 9/5WIN

Trainer: George R Arnold II · Jockey: Luis Saez

Paid $4.20 to win ($2)

Echo Sound holds a named sheet edge — (a) leads both graphs; (b) top-2 in both graphs while holding the late-graph lead — in this 6 Furlongs Dirt race (DrmSprmeL300K); running style E/P, late 92, early 70.

The price: 9/5 favorite over the 3/1 second choice — the line's top choice, with the sheet edge named in the why as its confirmation.

Official chart

NEXT BEST

11:40 AM ET · Belmont Park · Race 1

6½ Furlongs · Dirt · Mdn 100k

IF THE PACE STAYS HONEST (35%)

#5 Donegal Luster 8/5WIN

Trainer: Todd A Pletcher · Jockey: John R Velazquez

Paid $4.52 to win ($2)

Official under the §24 price cap (v3.9): the §23 official, Louden (5/1), is a non-favorite over 7/2, so the pick is the ML favorite Donegal Luster (8/5). The filed case horse leaves the backup chain; the other scenario's horse is the first backup.

The price: 8/5 favorite — the §24 cap pick; the filed case horse was Louden at 5/1, over the 7/2 cap for a non-favorite official

IF THE PACE STAYS HONEST (35%)

#5 Donegal Luster 8/5WIN

Trainer: Todd A Pletcher · Jockey: John R Velazquez

Paid $4.52 to win ($2)

Donegal Luster holds a named sheet edge — (a) leads both graphs; (b) top-2 in both graphs while holding the late-graph lead — in this 6½ Furlongs Dirt race (Mdn 100k); running style P, late 100, early 75.

The price: 8/5 favorite over the 2/1 second choice — the line's top choice, with the sheet edge named in the why as its confirmation.

Official chart

FEATURED PLAY

5:25 PM ET · Churchill Downs · Race 10

7 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance 16000s

IF THE PACE COLLAPSES (55%)

#3 Five o' Somewhere 4/1OUT

Trainer: Matt A Shirer · Jockey: Luis Saez

Won by #8 Air of Defiance — paid $11.90

Official under the §24 price cap (v3.9): the §23 official, Defending Albert (9/2), is a non-favorite over 7/2, so the pick is the ML favorite Five o' Somewhere (4/1). The filed case horse leaves the backup chain; the other scenario's horse is the first backup.

The price: 4/1 favorite — the §24 cap pick; the filed case horse was Defending Albert at 9/2, over the 7/2 cap for a non-favorite official

Official chart

The Cheat Sheet — Settled

POST	TRACK	RACE	SELECTION	ML	RESULT	CHART
11:40 AM	Belmont Park	R1	If the pace stays honest (35%): #5 Donegal Luster If the pace stays honest (35%): #5 Donegal Luster Official chart	8/5 8/5	WIN $4.52 WIN	Official chart
12:20 PM	Gulfstream Park	R1	If the pace is controlled (65%): #7 Miss Silipo Counter-move (§16): #5 Our Perfect Amanda Official chart	2/1 7/2	WIN $5.00 PLACE	Official chart
12:28 PM	Laurel Park	R2	If the pace stays honest (60%): #2 Hurry Hurry Counter-move (§16): #7 Real Macho Official chart	2/1 9/2	OUT OUT	Official chart
1:00 PM	Churchill Downs	R1	If the pace stays honest (55%): #2 Special Caliber ★ Official chart	7/2	OUT	Official chart
1:05 PM	Woodbine	R1	If the pace is controlled (65%): #4 Afleet Flatter Official chart	9/5	PLACE	Official chart
1:10 PM	Belmont Park	R4	If the pace stays honest (60%): #7 Tiger Twenty Four Official chart	8/5	OUT	Official chart
1:19 PM	Gulfstream Park	R3	If the pace is controlled (55%): #2 Starship Patriot Official chart	2/1	PLACE	Official chart
1:25 PM	Laurel Park	R4	If the pace is controlled (55%): #4 Ayni ★ Official chart	3/1	PLACE	Official chart
1:29 PM	Churchill Downs	R2	If the pace is controlled (65%): #4 Fletch's Rockette ★ Official chart	4/1	WIN $5.18	Official chart
4:32 PM	Del Mar HOT	R3	If the pace is controlled (65%): #1 Holmby Official chart	4/5	WIN $2.60	Official chart
1:33 PM	Woodbine	R2	If the pace stays honest (67%): #1 Gelato Counter-move (§16): #8 Fog d'Oro Official chart	2/1 5/2	SHOW OUT	Official chart
1:40 PM	Belmont Park	R5	If the pace is controlled (65%): #2 Bring Cash Official chart	5/2	WIN $4.54	Official chart
1:58 PM	Churchill Downs HOT	R3	If the pace is controlled (55%): #6 Justinqueso ★ If the pace stays honest (45%): #4 Echo Sound Official chart	5/1 9/5	PLACE WIN $4.20	Official chart
5:02 PM	Del Mar	R4	If the pace stays honest (67%): #4 Hankering Counter-move (§16): #3 Battle School Official chart	5/2 7/2	OUT WIN $6.80	Official chart
2:17 PM	Gulfstream Park	R5	If the pace stays honest (67%): #8 Promenade Queen Official chart	3/1	PLACE	Official chart
2:28 PM	Churchill Downs	R4	If the pace stays honest (55%): #4 Kerness K Counter-move (§16): #1 Swirvin Official chart	3/1 9/2	WIN $4.78 OUT	Official chart
5:32 PM	Del Mar	R5	If the pace is controlled (55%): #6 Will Do One Official chart	4/1	SHOW	Official chart
2:35 PM	Woodbine	R4	If the pace stays honest (67%): #2 Out N Out Disgrace Counter-move (§16): #6 Moon Landing Official chart	2/1 5/2	OUT SHOW	Official chart
2:41 PM	Belmont Park	R7	If the pace collapses (55%): #9 Vekomancer ★ Official chart	7/2	WIN $5.48	Official chart
2:47 PM	Gulfstream Park	R6	If the pace stays honest (60%): #2 Alinao Forever ★ Official chart	7/2	WIN $6.80	Official chart
2:53 PM	Laurel Park HOT	R7	If the pace is controlled (55%): #2 Frustrated Official chart	5/2	WIN $3.60	Official chart
3:05 PM	Woodbine	R5	If the pace stays honest (65%): #2 Smoked Official chart	5/2	PLACE	Official chart
3:18 PM	Gulfstream Park	R7	If the pace is controlled (55%): #1 Lady Cross ★ Official chart	9/2	PLACE	Official chart
3:26 PM	Churchill Downs	R6	If the pace stays honest (55%): #5 Coquito Official chart	8/5	PLACE	Official chart
3:48 PM	Gulfstream Park	R8	If the pace stays honest (70%): #3 Great Venezuela Official chart	9/5	WIN $3.80	Official chart
3:52 PM	Laurel Park	R9	If the pace stays honest (60%): #8 Waveless Official chart	9/5	OUT	Official chart
3:55 PM	Churchill Downs	R7	If the pace collapses (55%): #1 Ironsides ★ Official chart	7/2	OUT	Official chart
4:14 PM	Belmont Park	R10	If the pace collapses (60%): #9 Playa Del Mar Counter-move (§16): #12 Sidearm Official chart	2/1 7/2	OUT OUT	Official chart
4:18 PM	Gulfstream Park	R9	If the pace stays honest (55%): #6 Practically Dark Counter-move (§16): #5 Jalapeno Official chart	5/2 3/1	PLACE WIN $8.00	Official chart
4:22 PM	Laurel Park	R10	If the pace stays honest (60%): #2 Atlantic Cat Official chart	2/1	SHOW	Official chart
4:25 PM	Churchill Downs	R8	If the pace collapses (55%): #3 Talkin in Cursive Official chart	5/2	PLACE	Official chart
4:47 PM	Gulfstream Park	R10	If the pace stays honest (60%): #7 Classic Genes Official chart	3/1	OUT	Official chart
6:08 PM	Delta Downs	R2	If the pace stays honest (70%): #5 Tensas Lu Lu Official chart	5/2	PLACE	Official chart
5:10 PM	Woodbine	R9	If the pace stays honest (55%): #7 Piper's Gift Counter-move (§16): #8 Z Z's Official chart	2/1 3/1	SHOW OUT	Official chart
5:17 PM	Gulfstream Park	R11	If the pace stays honest (60%): #11 Degree of Risk ★ Official chart	4/1	PLACE	Official chart
5:25 PM	Churchill Downs	R10	If the pace collapses (55%): #3 Five o' Somewhere Official chart	4/1	OUT	Official chart
5:42 PM	Woodbine	R10	If the pace stays honest (67%): #5 Victory Achieved Counter-move (§16): #3 My Boy Prince Official chart	2/1 5/2	SHOW OUT	Official chart
5:54 PM	Churchill Downs	R11	If the pace stays honest (70%): #1 Expect the Best Counter-move (§16): #7 Indy Charges On Official chart	3/1 7/2	PLACE OUT	Official chart
7:04 PM	Delta Downs	R4	If the pace stays honest (60%): #4 Bearcat Official chart	2/1	WIN $4.00	Official chart
7:32 PM	Delta Downs	R5	If the pace stays honest (60%): #8 Easy Like Breezy Official chart	5/2	SHOW	Official chart
7:58 PM	Remington Park HOT	R2	If the pace is controlled (55%): #1 Lake Bee Counter-move (§16): #6 Yougotthisjr	2/1 4/1	PEND PEND
7:00 PM	Charles Town	R1	If the pace stays honest (67%): #5 Robbielikeshim Official chart	1/1	WIN $3.80	Official chart
8:26 PM	Remington Park	R3	If the pace stays honest (67%): #7 Glory O	7/2	PEND
7:32 PM	Charles Town	R2	If the pace stays honest (60%): #7 Judy G ★	2/1	PEND
8:54 PM	Remington Park	R4	If the pace stays honest (55%): #5 Curlin's Union	8/5	PEND
9:50 PM	Remington Park	R6	If the pace stays honest (67%): #3 Clear the Clock	7/2	PEND
10:20 PM	Delta Downs	R11	If the pace stays honest (67%): #2 C Note Gia	3/1	PEND

★ = the pick was not the morning-line favorite.
The HOT badge marks the race shape our settled record wins most — controlled pace on top, a clear late-graph leader, no synthetic surface.
PEND — the pick was scratched in the official chart and no filed backup ran, so the play is a refund. It is not a result still missing.
When a pick is scratched and a filed backup ran, the leg settles on that backup — the pick that would have been filed had the scratches been known — and counts in the scorecard.
Counter-move legs (v2.9 §16) are extra $2 win legs filed in races with no strong favorite; they count in the scorecard and carry no scratch backup — a scratched counter leg is a refund.
Pace-price legs (v3.0 §19) are the race's headline pace pick at 2/1–7/2; standalone legs count in the scorecard and carry no scratch backup — a scratched pace-price leg is a refund. A PACE-PRICE tag on a pair or counter leg marks the same horse and is reported as a memo line only, never counted twice.
Payouts are the official $2 payoffs. Full race-by-race results with WIN/PLACE/SHOW banners: see the Results Archive.
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The Tip Sheet — Results

Today — Saturday, November 14, 2026

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Cumulative — 2026-10-31 to 2026-11-14 · 14 settled days on file

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